#BTC BTC Technical Formation: Current price $61,079 is below the pivot point PP ($61,140), near the bull-bear dividing line with direction pending. Price has broken below the 30-day Volume Point of Control (POC) at $63,647, indicating that the short-term volume concentration zone has shifted from support to resistance. Price is well below the 50 EMA ($68,240) and 200 SMA ($76,203), confirming a clearly bearish medium-term trend. The first support S1 ($59,041) forms a resonance zone with the lower edge of the value area at $60,688, making it the most critical bullish defense line. If S1 is broken, the next support targets S2 ($57,004). On the resistance side, R1 ($63,177) and POC ($63,647) form a strong resistance zone.

Trend Analysis
Short-term (1-5 days)
Technical: BTC is oscillating in a narrow range of $59,041-$61,140. The 4-hour RSI is in oversold territory, indicating a potential technical rebound. However, price has failed to hold above PP ($61,140), suggesting weak rebound momentum. If it falls below $60,920 (24h low), it may test S1 ($59,041).

Sentiment: The Fear & Greed Index at 12 indicates extreme fear, historically often corresponding to short-term bottom areas, but a catalyst is needed to confirm a reversal. Machi's ETH liquidation event may trigger a chain reaction; liquidation risks of other high-leverage positions need monitoring.

Event-driven: Tonight, the U.S. will release the final Q1 GDP and May PCE price index, key data affecting Fed rate cut expectations. If PCE data falls more than expected, risk assets may be boosted; if data remains resilient, selling pressure may intensify.

Medium-term Analysis (1-3 months)
Policy Window: After the Fed's June FOMC meeting, market pricing for the rate cut path has become conservative. If inflation data continues to decline, a September rate cut becomes more likely, which would be a major macro driver for a crypto market medium-term rebound.

ETF Flows: Current BTC ETFs continue to see net outflows, with institutional capital in a wait-and-see mode. A reversal in ETF flows requires clear policy signals or a confirmed price bottom. Institutional holding cost area is roughly $58,000-$62,000; current price is near this zone, potentially attracting some dip-buying.

Liquidity Expectations: Major global central banks (except Japan) remain in tightening or wait-and-see mode, with a liquidity environment unfriendly to risk assets. The Bank of Japan Governor, after illness, stated he would "raise rates again in a timely manner." If yen carry trades unwind further, it may cause short-term shocks to global risk assets (including crypto).

Long-term Analysis (6-12 months)
Macro Trends: Under the global "de-dollarization" trend, the logic of gold and Bitcoin as alternative reserve assets remains valid. The scale of tokenized commodities has surpassed $7.1 billion, with clear structural growth, providing new value anchoring for the crypto market.

Structural Changes: Bitcoin's post-halving supply shock will gradually manifest over the next 6-12 months. Historical patterns show that the 12th-18th month after halving typically sees a major uptrend. Current price is relatively low post-halving, with long-term allocation value emerging.

Re-pricing of Center: With accelerating institutionalization (e.g., MicroStrategy, ETFs), Bitcoin's volatility center may gradually shift downward, but price center will move upward. If the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle, global liquidity easing will drive BTC re-pricing, with a long-term target range of $85,000-$100,000.

Key Nodes
Short-term: Tonight 20:30 U.S. final Q1 GDP, May PCE price index; next moves of whale Machi's ETH long positions; whether BTC can hold support S1 ($59,041)
Medium-term: July FOMC meeting (July 29-30); U.S. June CPI data (mid-July); weekly BTC ETF flow changes
Long-term: Probability changes for September FOMC rate cut; pace of major central bank policy shifts; post-halving supply tightening effects