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Galaxy Futures: Domestic consumption off-season suppresses zinc prices, but the cost line of smelters still provides support for zinc prices.

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From a fundamental perspective, the domestic shortage of mine supply is difficult to change, and zinc concentrate processing fees continue to decline. Smelter profits have further shrunk, but no large-scale production cuts due to losses have been seen among domestic smelters, and refined zinc output remains stable. On the consumption side, downstream orders have not improved, and procurement is cautious under the fear of high prices. Domestic social inventories continue to accumulate. In the short term, the domestic consumption off-season suppresses zinc prices, but smelter cost lines still provide support. In the medium to long term, if domestic zinc concentrate processing fees decline further, it is not ruled out that smelter production cuts may expand. Meanwhile, overseas supply-side disruptions continue, LME inventories are relatively low, and expectations for the opening of the export window remain. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro and capital sentiment on zinc prices. (Galaxy Futures)
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