Natural Rubber Network: Cooling signals on the demand side appear, limiting the rebound space of the rubber market.

On the supply side, Thailand has entered the seasonal production increase cycle, but persistent showers in the south are disrupting tapping, with latex glue remaining at a high of 86.5 THB/kg, providing cost support for the processing margin; the intensity of El Niño continues to rise, offering long-term bullish factors for far-month contracts due to expected production cuts, but the gradual release of new rubber volumes in the short term is capping the rebound. Inventory in the Qingdao bonded area in China is slowly declining, while SHFE RU warehouse receipts are increasing slightly; No.20 rubber warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, resulting in a clear difference in strength between the two. On the demand side, it remains weak, with domestic semi-steel and all-steel tire operating rates declining week-on-week, end product inventories accumulating, downstream buyers adopting a wait-and-see stance, spot trading being sluggish, spot prices tracking the futures declines, and spot premiums narrowing. On the macro front, the U.S. dollar is strengthening, crude oil and chemical products are collectively pulling back, and market risk appetite is cooling, weighing on the overall valuation of commodities.

On the capital side, the net short position of the top 20 RU traders has expanded, with long positions reducing and exiting; for No.20 rubber, shorts have slightly decreased, capital favoring darker-colored rubber. In the short term, rubber prices will maintain range-bound fluctuations, with RU facing resistance at 17,900 CNY/ton and support at 17,500 CNY/ton; for No.20 rubber, resistance lies at 15,700 CNY/ton, supported by raw material costs. Operations should follow a range-bound approach, with continued tracking of raw material flows from Thailand's production areas and the pace of recovery in domestic rubber tire operating rates. (Natural Rubber Network)