US Stock Market Trend (June 25): Micron surges over 13% in after-hours trading, Qualcomm receives Meta order, chip stocks reverse three-day decline.

Written by: Chaoxiang Research

During Wednesday's trading session, the S&P 500 fell for a third straight day, London Gold broke below $4,000, WTI crude oil dropped below $70, Bitcoin fell below $60,000, and the U.S. Dollar Index hit a 13-month high. Commodities, crypto, and equities all faced simultaneous pressure. However, after the market close, Micron reported a blockbuster earnings report, sending its stock soaring over 13% in after-hours trading. On the same day, Qualcomm announced its entry into the AI data center market, with its stock also rising over 10% after-hours. The combination of these two events shifted Thursday's pricing logic from "whether AI demand is ending" to "whether chips can lead the recovery."

Market Performance

The S&P 500 fell 0.10% to 7,358.22 points, the Nasdaq fell 0.43% to 25,476.64 points, the Dow rose 0.35% to 51,848.90 points, and the Russell 2000 rose 0.37% to 2,986.63 points. Technology and communication sectors dragged the Nasdaq, while the Dow and small-cap stocks were supported by non-tech sectors. The VIX closed at 18.63, down 4.41% from the previous day.

Micron closed at $1,048.51, surging over 13% after-hours following its earnings release. SanDisk and Western Digital also followed suit in after-hours trading. Qualcomm fell 3.3% during regular trading but jumped over 10% after-hours. SpaceX closed down about 1% at $154.54, having retreated over 31% from its all-time high of $225.64 since its listing.

Commodities also showed signs of strain. WTI crude oil fell 4.6% to $69.87, its lowest since March 2; Brent crude fell 4.1% to $73.65. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 9 basis points to 4.407% alongside the oil price decline, returning to levels before the Fed's hawkish dot plot release last week; the 2-year yield stood at 4.152%. Bitcoin fell 5.4% during the session to hit $59,023, its lowest since October 2024. London Gold broke below $4,000 for the first time in seven months. The U.S. Dollar Index rose to a 13-month high.

Macro & Outlook

Micron reported third fiscal quarter revenue of $41.46 billion, up 346% year-over-year; Non-GAAP EPS of $25.11, with a gross margin of 84.9%, both far exceeding expectations. Core data center revenue was $11.5 billion, nearly 70% higher than market expectations, directly addressing the market's biggest question over the past three days about the sustainability of AI memory demand. Fourth fiscal quarter guidance includes median revenue of $50 billion and EPS of about $31, 16% and 22% above consensus, respectively. Micron's CEO clearly stated that HBM supply tightness will persist beyond 2027, with 16 long-term agreements locking in $22 billion in forward revenue.

At Qualcomm's Investor Day, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg confirmed via video that Qualcomm will become Meta's data center CPU supplier, and Microsoft Azure announced it will deploy Qualcomm's HBC chips. Qualcomm raised its non-handset business revenue guidance for fiscal 2029 from $22 billion to $40 billion, an increase of 91%. This company, long reliant on mobile phone chips, used two client endorsements from Meta and Microsoft to prove that its entry into the AI data center market is not just a narrative but actual orders.

The most important pricing variable for today's market is the May PCE. Market consensus expects core PCE year-over-year to rise from 3.3% to 3.4%. If the data again runs hot, a rate hike in September will shift from a probability to a consensus, and the Waller hawkish path will gain data support, directly offsetting the after-hours rally in chip stocks with interest rate pressure. However, oil prices falling below $70 have already pulled the 10-year yield down 9 basis points. If PCE softens alongside energy deflation, the repricing of rate cut expectations could happen faster than anyone expects. PCE and Micron's earnings report will deliver their results on the same day today.

The fundamental driver behind oil prices falling below $70 is the substantial de-escalation at Hormuz, with stranded Gulf oil tankers gradually departing, supply expectations rebuilding, and the geopolitical premium being wiped out within a few weeks.

Chaoxiang Perspective

Wednesday's session told the market one thing: the selling over the past three days was not just about chips, but a distrust of the entire AI infrastructure narrative. Gold, crude oil, and Bitcoin all broke key levels on the same day, indicating that this selling pressure is not a single-point risk but a systematic hedging by capital against the combination of high valuations, high interest rates, and high leverage.

Micron's earnings report changed the most critical link in this logic chain. Data center revenue of $11.5 billion versus expectations of $6.8 billion is a gap wide enough that this is not seasonal fluctuation but accelerating demand. The panic caused by rumors of SK Hynix production cuts was refuted by Micron's own order book. Qualcomm securing CPU contracts from Meta and Microsoft shows that the semiconductor ecosystem beyond NVIDIA is also absorbing the spillover of AI capital expenditure. Together, these two events give bulls a clear supporting logic today.

But PCE is a hard constraint. If PCE runs hot, rate hike expectations will overpower the sentiment from earnings reports, and after-hours gains could be eaten by interest rate logic during regular trading. The true direction will only become clear after the PCE release.