$SPCX $BTC If they are really setting up a trap? Is the big cycle coming?

The two events—Japan's interest rate hike and the US-Iran memorandum of understanding—are part of a "setup" involving the US and Japan to align with a US rate cut.

- The impact and motivation behind Japan's rate hike:
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- Japan raised rates from 0.75% to 1% and initiated a rate hike cycle. In the past, Japan maintained near-zero rates for a long time, prompting many global institutions and individuals to borrow yen and invest overseas, creating the "overseas Japan" phenomenon.
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- After the rate hike, borrowing costs rose. Overseas yen funds, as returns cannot keep up with costs, will flow back to Japan, putting pressure on the economies of countries where Japan has heavily invested.
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- The Bank of Japan chose to raise rates also to alleviate the prolonged depreciation of the yen (which once fell to 160). By slowing depreciation through rate hikes, it aims to push the yen toward future appreciation.
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- The role of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding:
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- On the US side, Trump wants rate cuts to boost manufacturing reshoring and improve midterm election approval ratings, but Wall Street and the Fed favor rate hikes due to inflation. After signing the memorandum, crude oil prices fell, easing US inflationary pressure and creating conditions for Trump to push for rate cuts.
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- Considering the demands of both the US and Iran, the likelihood of reaching a long-term consensus is low. The memorandum appears more like a temporary measure for the US to ease inflation and advance rate cuts.
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- The logic behind the US-Japan setup:
The US Treasury Secretary encouraged Japan to raise rates. The return of yen funds will pressure US Treasuries and stocks, forcing Wall Street and the Fed to accept rate cuts. Meanwhile, the US-Iran memorandum lowers crude oil prices, alleviating US inflation and further paving the way for US rate cuts, ultimately serving US domestic political and economic goals.#日本央行加息政策 #日本加息 #降息