It’s not surprising that prediction markets hit their targets early— the World Cup and elections are naturally a traffic cheat code. But the phrase about the L2 reshuffle is even harsher: by the end of 2026, only a very small number are likely to still be around, so betting on the top players is the rational choice.

According to 21Shares' mid-year outlook report, as of the end of May, the cumulative trading volume of prediction markets had reached $57.5 billion, accounting for more than half of its previously forecasted target of $100 billion by 2026. The firm believes that, driven by the World Cup and the U.S. midterm elections, prediction markets may achieve their target ahead of schedule. Additionally, 21Shares stated that the judgment that "most Layer 2s will not survive until the end of 2026" is coming true, with market share concentrating toward a few leading projects.