A 30% win-rate strategy averaging 2.5R and above will always beat a strategy that's 50% win-rate but only nets 1R on average.


Trading isn't about winrate. It's about making profit. Only inexperience traders judge another trader's performance based on winrate alone.
If markets swings more than 10% every week and you're only able to capture 1% of that as profit, it's not that there were not enough opportunities to make profit. It's that either you or your edge was not good/optimal enough.
Now, nothing is wrong with only capturing 1%, at the end of the day profit is still profit and most traders are not profitable so that's already commendable it's just that performance wise it's not optimal. It's like seeing a school of fishes swimming by and you throw out your fishing rod and was able to catch 5 of them, congrats you did better than the guy that was using his hands that only caught one and the guy that didn't even turn up but then there is another guy with a net that's well positioned and was able to catch 25 fishes instead. It's the same sea of fishes, just like it's the same market but some edges are better than others just like the guy with the net.
Newer traders will often gravitate towards a strategy that appears to have a higher win-rate which in most cases are the 1:1 strategies or even less and so they become hang up on win-rate because they need a high win-rate to make it work; Unfortunately this has a bad ripple effect, those low RR traders when they finally get a good strategy such as mine that can yield high RR trades they struggle to hold trades...as soon as they're up 1R they can't sit still, they're too conditioned to cut trades early, it'll take them longer to adapt because they have to unlearn bad habits. In contrast a person who have never traded before will often dominate a high RR strategy like mine because they are not burden by those bad habits.
Now using the same analogy it's like the guy with the fishing rod upgrading from a fishing rod to a net but he's suppose to wait like 10 minutes after letting down his net before pulling it up but the moment he sees 5 fishes entering the net he pulls it up missing out on the full or majority of the potential of what the sea had to offer.
I realized this problem from early on and that's why I mostly aim to take trades with 2RR or more, I try to get as much out of a trade as is safe. If I see a setup that looks like it'll play out quick but only 1R and it's high probability I'll chance it occasionally but I won't make it a habit. If the trade looks like it can give 10R I'll aim to hold for the 10R. Imagine getting a 10R trade when you only need 3 to be profitable or getting one of those when you've been on a 5 loss losing streak it just makes it easier to be profitable and not just profitable highly profitable.
My DTT strategy is capable of that. It offers a good balance between high RR and good win-rate around 50% but it's a spectrum that varies with market conditions which is why I don't trade 1 pair, I look for favorable pairs, when market is pumping hard or crashing hard it's win-rate is over 50% and often I catch majority of the move, it's a rare strategy because it's custom built and I wouldn't publicly promote it, if it wasn't good. Anybody whose been following for a while have seen it's capability live and every losing streak that came with it was like data revealing where to fine tune and right now it's quite stable actually more fun with the new custom trade scanner, thanks to AI.
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GateUser-95194dd2
· 1h ago
Observing Carefully🔍
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