Today’s drop should focus on two aspects. One is Micron’s earnings. Micron feels to me like NVIDIA—it’s like the ceiling of the same track, and the earnings figures can swing expectations for this track even for the whole industry. So if Micron’s earnings continue to be strong, the market will believe that AI server demand is still continuing. In that case, U.S. tech stocks—especially NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix—may still have an opportunity to rebound.

The reason I say that even if the earnings are good, it will only be an opportunity is because there are still the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike expectations that are frightening the market. If the second half of today’s U.S. stock decline was due to hedging ahead of Micron’s earnings, then the fall in gold, silver, Bitcoin, and U.S. Treasury yields is a hedge against the possibility of the Fed raising rates. (Of course, U.S. stocks were also affected to some extent.)

The core of the hedging should be tomorrow’s core PCE data. Core PCE is what the Federal Reserve pays close attention to, and it is also an important guide for the Fed’s interest-rate adjustments. And needless to say, the market expects core PCE to rise. Combined with Bank of America’s pessimistic expectations, this is what triggered today’s DXY rise, and the declines in other assets.

So the focus right now should be whether the Fed truly has rate-hike expectations. Although Bank of America thinks there will be a rate hike, from my personal view, at least in the current situation, there won’t be one. Even though the transmission from oil prices may be slower, this should be why Warsh is unwilling to provide forward guidance. Under these circumstances, forward guidance would inevitably mean inflation rising and an increased probability of rate hikes. But once oil prices recover, inflation may fall within just a few months.

Although I don’t know what the next ups and downs will be, I believe the process of rising and falling will definitely be closely tied to the market’s expectations for Fed rate adjustments and inflation data.

Especially for Bitcoin, which has fallen below $60,000—this level looks like a psychological line of defense for many investors. After it breaks below this price, investors’ pessimistic expectations will rise. Many investors may worry that it will break below $50,000 or even lower. But from my personal perspective, I have always believed that $BTC ’s price is related to the Fed’s monetary policy, and it’s related to U.S. stocks.

For me personally, what I can do is buy more when it’s lower. I’ve already added some positions at $62,000 and $63,000. The rest will wait until after tomorrow’s Micron earnings report and the data following core PCE. #0成本拿2股SK海力士 $BTC ‌