Right now, the overall macro environment is that oil is falling, and countries around the world are stockpiling oil. Stockpiling oil requires USD—so they either sell U.S. Treasuries or sell gold, which is why gold has been smashed.

At the same time, sovereign wealth funds are also pulling back, so the stock market is falling too. In the crypto market, it’s natural to withdraw capital—down! Overall, we have to wait until everyone has finished building up their oil reserves and the economy returns to a stable course before there’s a chance of the market bottoming out. In the meantime, there could still be “curveballs” from the U.S.-Iran negotiations, so be careful.

Recently, the probability of Japan “blowing up” is extremely high. If they don’t raise interest rates, capital will flow out for the carry trade into U.S. Treasuries, making U.S. Treasuries very strong—and the USD also very strong. If they raise rates, their own domestic Japanese government bonds will collapse. I remember that a few years ago the yen exchange rate was still around 100, but now it’s 160. It has depreciated too much—where did the wealth go? It went to the U.S., where the U.S. has been “draining” it!

Today, Bitcoin again broke below the previous low. I opened a long position, took a bite and then left. Unfortunately, with the drop so violent, I didn’t get a chance to catch the short position. I also closed the earlier 622 long!

Right now I’m watching spcx short, because I don’t think highly of it—the reasons were mentioned earlier.
$BTC $SPCX