Let me tell a ghost story, one that all bulls are afraid to face. Bitcoin could very well drop to the 30k level, or even 15k in an extreme scenario.

Here are my views:
1. Every bull market typically ends with a major institution blowing up. Does this cycle have one? No. Who could it be? MicroStrategy? Possible! And the likelihood is not low—this financial cockroach was the culprit behind the last internet bubble collapse.
2. Bitcoin's rise from 48k to 120k was more driven by Wall Street capital inflows. This time, the decline from 120k can be seen as a bear market for Bitcoin. But!!! It can also be seen as Wall Street capital pulling out. Why do I say that? Because we can clearly see that investment enthusiasm hasn't diminished; it has shifted. Gold, crude oil, and storage assets have all successively absorbed investment enthusiasm during Bitcoin's downtrend. So the bear market you imagine may not have started yet.
3. Following the previous point, why do I say the bear market hasn't started? In the 2021 Bitcoin bear market, it strongly overlapped with the US stock bear market in terms of cycles. Now that Bitcoin is highly Wall Street-ized, if US stocks turn bearish, is there any chance Bitcoin can remain immune? Absolutely not! So could US stocks turn bearish? Yes! And quite possibly! The storage sector, led by Korean stocks, is already highly leveraged! Deleveraging is imminent.
4. Following the previous point, setting aside the high leverage in stock markets, does the economic cycle make logical sense? Yes. The high oil prices two months ago have already caused high inflation—this is a result, not an expectation. Japan has already implemented interest rate hikes and balance sheet expansion as economic measures. The Korean and US stocks, as leaders in the storage sector, are more likely using stock market rallies to absorb high inflation. If development can keep up with pricing, this is absorption. If development falls behind pricing, it's planting a bomb. Theoretically, due to greedy nature, development will inevitably lag behind pricing. So US and Korean stocks are very likely to enter a bear market within a few months.
Summary: Bitcoin's initial decline is only due to Wall Street withdrawals, and the so-called bear market may not have even started yet. With the bear market in US stocks and the collapse of Korean stocks, that will be the real bear market. Then blow-ups will appear, and that's when you'll see the true bear market.