Regarding MU's earnings report tonight... I studied a few points

1. The numbers will definitely exceed expectations... The real focus is on the Q4 guidance.
The market expects Q4 revenue guidance to be above 38–42 billion + maintain gross margin + HBM pricing strength extended to 2027 + HBM4's share explanation for SK Hynix. (Currently, MU has the smallest HBM4 share among NVIDIA, with SK Hynix holding 60-70%)
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2. Based on the historical experience of the past 8 earnings reports... each time it exceeded expectations.
Although the reaction on the next day varies with gap-up or gap-down opening, it’s hard to predict.
But a certain concern is that, after a gap, it’s likely to gradually fill the gap. Because the average one month after the earnings release is +4.5%
This means, if there’s a gap-up open tomorrow, don’t chase the first candle; wait until it fills part of the gap before considering entering. (Both times after a gap-up, it eventually dropped about -3% within the day)
If it gaps down tomorrow, buying in after the gap is likely to fill the gap and then gradually rise over the next month. Supported by historical statistical data.
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3. The only uncertainty this time is that yesterday’s de-leveraging in Korea has already caused MU to drop -13%, which has already priced in the volatility.
So, even if it exceeds expectations, if it’s a “sell the news” situation, how much further can it go down?