Now, to analyze trading volume, you must first consider its position within the price structure — abnormal volume during compression phases is a sign of an impending storm; simply comparing spot and derivatives is outdated.

CoinGlass news: cryptoquant analyst Moreno said in a post that abnormal BTC trading volume often appears before larger volatility. The key signal is not simply comparing spot and derivatives volumes, but rather where abnormal activity sits relative to the price structure. In the current cycle, the importance of spot exchange volume relative to ETFs and derivatives has declined; a dull spot market no longer necessarily means a lack of institutional activity, but a surge in spot volume may still reflect real token transfers, accumulation, distribution, or forced selling. Derivatives volume has become the main volatility transmission mechanism, and its surge is more often accompanied by liquidity sweeps, leverage resets, and rapid price revaluation. When abnormal volume occurs with price compression or unclear direction, it usually means the market is preparing for bigger volatility.