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Wu said that CryptoQuant analyst Moreno stated that abnormal trading volume in BTC often appears before larger fluctuations, and the key signal is not simply comparing spot and derivatives trading volume, but rather the position of abnormal activity relative to the price structure.
In the current cycle, the importance of spot exchange volume relative to ETFs and derivatives has decreased; a sluggish spot market no longer indicates a lack of institutional activity; however, a surge in spot volume may still reflect genuine coin transfers, accumulation, distribution, or forced selling.
Derivatives trading volume has become the main mechanism for transmitting volatility, and its surge is more often accompanied by liquidity sweeps, leverage resets, and rapid price revaluations.
When prices are compressed or the direction is unclear, abnormal trading volume usually indicates that the market is preparing for larger fluctuations.