The S&P 500 index has been moving within an upward channel since the COVID peak in 2020,

maintaining the same angle for more than five years.

In recent months,
the S&P 500 index broke out strongly from the top of this channel,
which in itself is a rare movement and not often repeated in the index's history.

The price is now at a Fibonacci extension zone of 1.618 at approximately 7,425 points,
the same level at which the index is currently trading near 7,475.

The next target at the same extension is the 2.618 level at 8,111 points,
which explains the market talk about the eight thousand mark.
-
But breaking out of the channel does not always mean the continuation of the rise at the same angle.

In most historical cases,
when a major index breaks out so sharply from its extended channel over years, two scenarios occur:

- A strong continuation outside the channel creates a new higher channel,
- or a quick return to retest the old channel's top as support.

The notable technical point here is that the index has not moved far from the channel's top afterward,
meaning both scenarios are still very much open.
--
And now it's your turn
Which of the two scenarios do you think is more likely?

Continued momentum toward 8,000 points before the end of the year
or the index returning to retest the channel again
$SPX $BTC $NAS100