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The World Cup prediction market is booming: Polymarket trading volume approaches the U.S. election

As the World Cup approaches, global football fans' enthusiasm is unprecedentedly high. With the start of the USA-Canada-Mexico World Cup, trading activity regarding the World Cup champion on prediction markets is also rapidly increasing. Data shows that despite more than five weeks until the final, the trading volume on the two major global prediction market platforms has already exceeded $2 billion, likely breaking records. On the Polymarket platform, the trading volume of event contracts for the World Cup champion has surpassed $1.9 billion, making it the core platform for betting on this World Cup.

Among these trades, Polymarket's all-time highest trading volume was $3.69 billion during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and trading around the World Cup champion is expected to break this record. Industry analysis indicates that as the number of participating teams increases, the total betting volume for this World Cup is projected to exceed $50 billion, a 43% increase compared to the 2022 Qatar World Cup.

Interestingly, the team with the highest trading volume is not the well-known Spain, France, or England, but Uzbekistan. This team, which has repeatedly challenged China on Asian fields, has unexpectedly become a "dark horse" in trading. Although Uzbekistan's probability of winning the World Cup is only 0.01%, its trading volume on Polymarket has already exceeded $59 million.

Behind this phenomenon lies the unique appeal of prediction markets. Unlike traditional betting forms, Polymarket allows users to buy and sell contracts at any time before the event ends, turning betting from simple outcome wagers into probability fluctuation trading. This mechanism attracts many speculators who are not only seeking opportunities but also exploiting platform liquidity rewards for arbitrage.

While Uzbekistan's high trading volume may seem surprising, closer analysis reveals that many traders have already closed their positions, indicating that their bets are not based on genuine confidence in the team but more on earning rewards from Polymarket. Such phenomena are not uncommon in investment markets, especially on emerging platforms, where speculative behavior often causes short-term market volatility.

However, Polymarket is not without controversy. The platform has faced strict scrutiny from multiple governments due to predictions related to global geopolitical conflicts. In April, a bettor was suspected of interfering with the temperature gauge at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport, attempting to manipulate the market, raising questions about the regulation of prediction markets. U.S. prosecutors are currently investigating multiple potential insider trading cases.

Despite this, the enthusiasm for the World Cup continues to sweep through the entire betting market. Major prediction platforms are launching innovative betting projects, vying to seize this market opportunity. Polymarket's partnership with online sports media OneFootball, which allows embedding real-time odds during live matches, provides users with a more convenient betting experience.

Surprisingly, despite the prediction market boom, the ADIPredictStreet platform, which is officially partnered with FIFA, appears relatively dull. This Abu Dhabi-based platform's total trading volume related to the World Cup market is less than $100k, far behind other competitors.