QCP Capital: Market focus shifts from the signing of the US-Iran agreement to implementation risks; the Federal Reserve signals a longer-term stance of maintaining high interest rates

BlockBeats News, June 24 — QCP Capital released a daily observation stating that after the signing of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), market focus has shifted from the agreement itself to the risks associated with its implementation. Although Brent crude oil prices have fallen below $80, the Strait of Hormuz shipping has not fully recovered, with only about 14 ships passing through daily, well below normal levels. Over the next 60 days, progress in technical negotiations and the ceasefire implementation between Lebanon and Israel will become key indicators to watch.

On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but the median of the 2026 dot plot was raised from 3.4% to 3.8%, further reinforcing the "Higher for Longer" stance. Meanwhile, the Fed raised its 2026 inflation forecast from 2.7% to 3.6%, highlighting that inflation remains a central constraint of current policy.

In the technology sector, SpaceX's stock price has fallen from its post-IPO high of $211 to $155, a 27% decline from the peak, but still above the $135 offering price. QCP believes that market narratives are shifting from the IPO boom to AI financing logic, with SpaceX gradually becoming an important part of the AI capital formation cycle.

In the crypto market, Strategy continues to increase its Bitcoin holdings, currently holding 847,363 BTC, about 4% of the total Bitcoin supply, with an average holding cost of $75,651. QCP points out that although Strategy's financing and accumulation mechanisms are still operational, the space for further leverage and Bitcoin accumulation is narrowing, given that spot prices are below the cost basis and preferred stock prices have fallen below par value.