QCP: Market focus is shifting from the "signing positive" of multiple macro events to subsequent execution risks

Deep Tide TechFlow News, June 24, According to the latest macroeconomic trend report released by QCP Group, market focus is shifting from the "signing positive" of multiple macro events to subsequent execution risks.

The US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has been officially signed, Brent crude oil has fallen below $80, easing tail risks, but the passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains only 14 times, far below normal levels. A 60-day technical negotiation window has opened, and market pricing has shifted to actual oil tanker flow and progress on Lebanon ceasefire compliance.

The Federal Reserve unanimously maintained interest rates at 3.50%–3.75%, but signaled a "longer period of high interest rates," with the median dot plot for 2026 raised to 3.8% (from 3.4%), and the range expanded to 3.4%–4.4%. Forward guidance was also canceled. The core PCE forecast is 3.30%, and the overall PCE is 3.82%, both above targets. Inflation, rather than growth, remains the main constraint.

After going public, SpaceX's stock price fell from a peak of $211 to $155, a decline of about 27%, but still 14.5% higher than the IPO price of $135. Market narrative has shifted from IPO momentum to AI financing logic, with $20 billion in notes used for refinancing xAI bridge loans, and approximately $60 billion in Anysphere/Cursor transactions converting equity into acquisition currency. SpaceX is being integrated into the AI capital formation cycle.

In the crypto market, Strategy continues to increase its BTC holdings, now holding 847,363 coins, about 4% of the total supply, with an average cost of $75,651. The spot price is about 15% below the $64.1B cost basis. STRC preferred shares are priced at $88.79, about 11% below face value. Capital markets are tightening, but as long as markets remain open, the accumulation engine will continue to operate.