$BTC Bitcoin's current price is 62,729, with a slight rally touching the key resistance level of 62,730 as previously indicated in the morning, perfectly fulfilling the early prediction. The 1-hour Bollinger middle band is at 62,599, and the price is holding above the middle band, but the upper Bollinger band at 62,991 is forming a strong resistance. Trading volume continues to decrease, indicating insufficient bullish momentum. The intraday low is 61,916, just one step away from the support zone at 61,870. The validity of the 61,870 support is reaffirmed. The 4-hour long-term bearish structure remains unchanged. This upward movement is still a corrective rebound after a decline, not a reversal.

Following the geopolitical news of the US and Iran restarting negotiations on the 30th, risk aversion in the Middle East has cooled, directly limiting the current rebound's upward space. It is unlikely to effectively break through the upper boundary of the 63,050 range. Selling pressure around 62,730 will continue to intensify.

The overall market trend is likely to be short-term upward. The current price just reaches the 62,730 resistance level. A pullback under pressure is a high-probability scenario. Only a sudden volume surge above 62,991 would briefly test the 63,050 top. However, there are still opportunities to short at high levels. After encountering resistance in the rebound, a reversal downward will occur, revisiting the key support at 61,870. If this support is broken, the 61,870-63,050 oscillation range will be completely broken, and the downward space will fully open.

Trading strategy

Bitcoin around 63,200, target 61,000

Ethereum around 1,700, target 1,600