Goldman Sachs: South Korea's exports are expected to surpass one trillion dollars for the full year; multiple institutions analyze that global inflation paths are diverging under Middle Eastern shocks

BlockBeats News, June 24 — Goldman Sachs' latest report indicates that the surge in AI capital expenditure has exceeded expectations in both its momentum and duration for Korea's chip cycle. The massive trade surplus driven by AI will continue until the end of the year, with Korea's full-year exports expected to surpass $1 trillion, and the current account surplus as a percentage of GDP rising to 15%.

On the U.S. side, the Dallas Fed's latest research shows that oil prices soared above $120 per barrel this spring, reducing U.S. economic output by about 0.3 percentage points. However, this impact is far less severe than the similar oil crises of the 1980s, reflecting a significant increase in the U.S. economy's resilience to oil price shocks.

In the Eurozone, analysts at ING noted that although June PMI data still indicate that business activity remains in contraction territory, the easing of inflationary pressures due to cooling energy prices is encouraging. Both manufacturing and services input cost growth have slowed. The sluggish growth combined with waning inflation concerns will suppress the European Central Bank's willingness to raise interest rates significantly.

In Australia, Westpac Bank maintains its forecast of an August rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia and warns that the "second-round effects" of Middle Eastern supply shocks are spreading — rising costs for fuels, transportation, and chemicals have begun to transmit to more sectors beyond energy. Wage cost pressures in the second half of 2026 could further push up inflation, and the unwinding of policy support measures will also prolong inflation risks beyond the August monetary policy meeting.