A brief chat about tonight $MU , my humble opinion, I’ve done my own review.

Based on options market pricing, the earnings report is expected to have a volatility of 12%+ (corresponding to a market value change of over 150 billion USD).
Four key signals for long and short:
1. Price increase & shipment volume (ASP + bits)
2. Next quarter performance guidance (sustainability of storage price hikes)
3. SCA long-term contracts (cyclical growth argument, need concrete evidence, not just talk --> best to disclose large lock-in orders from Nvidia, Google, etc., to support high valuation)
4. Capital expenditure (whether to increase HBM production line expansion)
Acceptable consensus: revenue ≥ 34.2 billion, gross margin ≥ 81.5%, EPS ≥ 20 USD【not suitable for direction, oscillation range】
Below expectations: revenue below 33.5 billion (central value), gross margin below 80.5% (reflecting price resilience, this round’s profit mainly due to ASP surge, DRAM up 58%+ month-over-month, NAND up 70%+)【continue to fall more than 10%+】
Over-expected line (bullish): revenue ≥ 36 billion, gross margin ≥ 82.5%, EPS ≥ 21.5 USD【then a gap up of at least 5%+】
Of course, if simultaneously meeting【stellar earnings + aggressive Q4 guidance + SCA details implemented + HBM share stable + CAPEX restrained】, a 10%+ gap up is not an issue, after all some aggressive institutions have already raised target prices close to 1,600 USD...
Different outcomes will also impact A-shares, as they test AI faith =3=
For example, my longest-held and largest position, Yake Technology, hit ATH again today, a few days of 10CM+ and today’s Korean stock resonance with storage, might also be a reverse inference.
(Hey... after all, Yake’s subsidiary UP Chemical is a core supplier of Micron HBM/DRAM/NAND and the only A-share company entering the supply chains of Micron, Samsung, and Hynix simultaneously).
Another example affecting storage packaging and testing: Shen Technology, Taiji Industrial, Tongfu Microelectronics.
Storage modules: Jiangbolong, Baiwei Storage.
Storage distribution: Shannon Core Innovation.
(And the previously mentioned Lanqi was worried about server storage module output decline, only looking at DRAM shipment volume, not benefiting from chip price hikes).
Actually, today’s A-share storage and packaging testing @#$# sectors have indirectly confirmed MU’s earnings report (maybe).
And, I rarely buy the dip in A-shares, only add on the right side.
Open your imagination, fully enjoy the volatility.
Need to make heavy bets on growth slope.
Still sticking to my own view.
This year is an A-share bull market.