A brief chat about tonight $MU , my humble opinion, I’ve done my own review.

From the options market pricing, the expected earnings report volatility is 12% + (corresponding market value change has exceeded 150 billion USD)
Four key signals for long and short:
1. Price increase & shipment volume (ASP + bit)
2. Next quarter performance guidance (sustainability of storage price increases)
3. SCA long-term contracts (cyclical turn to growth argument, need concrete actual evidence, not just talk --> preferably disclose large lock-in orders from Nvidia, Google, to support high valuation)
4. Capital expenditure (whether to increase capacity for HBM production lines)
Passing consensus: revenue ≥ 34.2 billion, gross margin ≥ 81.5%, EPS ≥ 20 USD【not suitable for directional trading, oscillation range】
Below expectations: revenue below 33.5 billion (central tendency), gross margin below 80.5% (reflecting price resilience, this round’s profit is mainly driven by ASP surge, DRAM up 58%+ QoQ, NAND up 70%+)【continue to fall more than 10%+】
Over-expected line (bullish): revenue ≥ 36 billion, gross margin ≥ 82.5%, EPS ≥ 21.5 USD【then a gap up of at least 5%+】
Of course, if both【stellar earnings + aggressive Q4 guidance + SCA details materialized + HBM share stabilized + controlled CAPEX】are met, a 10% gap up is not a problem, after all some aggressive institutions have already raised target prices close to 1,600 USD...
Different outcomes will also impact A-shares, after all, testing AI faith = 3=
For example, my longest-held and largest position, Yake Technology, hit ATH again today, a few days of 10CM+ today Korean stock market resonance and storage re-test, might also be a reverse inference.
(Haha... after all, Yake’s subsidiary UP Chemical is a core supplier of Micron HBM/DRAM/NAND and the only A-share company entering the supply chains of Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix simultaneously).
Another example affecting storage packaging and testing, such as Shen Technology, Taiji Industrial, Tongfu Microelectronics
Storage modules: Jiangbolong, Baiwei Storage
Storage distribution: Shannon Core Innovation
(And the previously mentioned Lanqi was worried about server storage module output decline, only looking at DRAM shipment volume, not benefiting from chip price increases).
Actually, today’s A-shares storage and packaging testing sectors have already @#$# indirectly confirmed MU’s earnings report (maybe)
And, I almost never buy the dip in A-shares, only add on the right side.
Open your imagination, fully enjoy the volatility.
Place heavy bets on growth slope.
If you believe, it will happen.