HODLers holding Bitcoin for over five years have reduced their sell-off to 962 coins, the lowest since November 2024, breaking below the 1,000 coin threshold for the first time. This data itself looks good, but a more important question is: if OGs stop selling, will the price go up?

The slowdown in OG selling indeed reduces core selling pressure, but the current Bitcoin price of $62,776 is exactly near the breakeven point for these holdings. Holding without selling is more about rationality than faith.
Meanwhile, although the net outflow from spot ETFs has narrowed, it has not reversed—institutional funds are still on the sidelines.
The divergence in on-chain structure lies in: OG accumulation versus miner selling forming a hedge. Miner pressure persists, with increasing sensitivity of hash rate, and empty blocks are becoming more frequent.
The short-term volatility range given by Wintermute’s options department is $61,242–$63,563, indicating liquidity is not abundant.
There are many signals of a bottom, but these signals are also diverging. The slowdown in OG selling is a long-term structural improvement, but short-term prices are still constrained by macro liquidity, ETF fund flows, and options expiry battles.
The $60k put wall on Friday may provide support, but without new buying catalysts, the market may continue to drift within a narrow range.
Don’t blindly buy the dip just because OGs are not selling. On-chain data can tell you what people are doing, but it cannot tell you where prices will go.
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