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$BTC
Price just swept the equal lows sitting at 59,800 that the market had been building since February that's the fuel stop done. Now we're hovering at 62,860 inside what I see as a supply area between 63k and 65k and the structure just doesn't feel like a reversal to me. It feels like a retracement back into distribution.
My plan is simple. I'm looking to get short from above the POI. If price pushes up into 63.5k to 65k I'm a seller there.
The order flow backs this up. The entire June drop was driven by relentless selling pressure with basically no real buyers stepping in at the lows. The bounce off 59.8k has all the hallmarks of a passive reaction, not smart money accumulating. The volume profile shows almost nothing was traded between 65k and 71k on the way down, which tells me price has no real business up there. It'll likely just pass through.
Open interest has been climbing while price goes nowhere that's not a squeeze building, that's people positioning short into this move up.
Key levels I'm watching: 63.5k to 65k entry zone, 72k to 74k the level that changes everything, 80k to 84k and I'm wrong.
If we get a daily close back above 72k with real volume behind it I'll reassess. Above 80k the whole idea is off the table.
Target is 58k. Stops above the POI. That's the trade.