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This week's most critical data will be announced on Thursday.
Core PCE inflation. Expectations are 3.4%.
If it comes in lower, Bitcoin and stock markets may ease, if higher, the Fed’s hawkish stance could strengthen.
The market generally expects inflation to remain high for the PCE inflation to be announced this week.
Expectations are approximately:
Headline PCE (annual): 4.1%
Core PCE (annual): 3.4%
Core PCE (monthly): around 0.3%
For comparison:
In April, headline PCE was 3.8%
Core PCE was 3.3%.
Market reaction
📈 If it comes in below expectations
Pressure on the Fed decreases.
Expectations for rate cuts strengthen.
Nasdaq, Bitcoin, and gold may react positively.
📉 If it comes in above expectations
It is thought that the Fed will keep interest rates high for a long time.
Dollar and bond yields may strengthen.
There could be selling pressure on Bitcoin, gold, and stocks.
The main figure I will be watching is the annual core PCE (expectation 3.4%) because the Fed places more importance on this data, which excludes energy and food prices.
Recently, oil prices have risen due to tensions with Iran, so the market is pricing in a slightly higher data risk.