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Quantum threats now have a clear timeline—will institutions reassess or continue to ignore them?
Quantum threats have long been considered a theoretical long-term risk, but an executive order has given them a specific deadline. Will this prompt institutional investors to reevaluate the long-term safety assumptions of holding BTC, or will it be treated as a distant tail risk and continue to be ignored?
I believe institutions will reassess, and the likely outcome is a mostly negative assessment. With a clear deadline, compliance and risk management departments can no longer bury their heads in the sand. Especially for pension funds, insurance companies, and publicly listed companies, once "quantum security" is included in due diligence checklists, the long-term holding logic of BTC will be reexamined.
Once tail risks turn into compliance risks with a timeline, they are no longer tail risks. Institutional funds will likely hedge or reduce their allocations in advance, which is highly probable. $BTC