From ETF's 5 billion outflow to miners selling coins: VanEc reveals June's BTC market

Source: VanEck June Mid-Year BTC Report; Compilation: Golden Finance Claw

Key Points

• As ETP fund outflows increase, Bitcoin faces selling pressure: The 30-day average price of Bitcoin has fallen to approximately $70,321 (a 10.3% month-over-month decline), while U.S. spot ETPs have experienced total outflows of about $5 billion, with 19 out of the past 22 trading days showing net outflows.

• Holders are surrendering rather than taking profits: Realized losses increased by 78% month-over-month to $714 million, while realized profits plummeted 57% to $194 million, causing the realized profit/loss ratio to fall below 1.0, indicating future returns are likely to be below normal levels.

• Bitcoin miners rely on sales and AI to fund operations: May miner revenue declined 26% YoY to about $1.12 billion, approaching the 37th percentile since 2023, as IREN and TeraWulf expanded AI and high-performance computing capacity.

Despite a rebound at month-end, Bitcoin is set to face a selling wave in June 2026

Over the past 30 days, BTC prices have fallen sharply, with spot prices closing at $65,705 on June 14, and the 30-day moving average dropping to about $70,321 (a 10.3% monthly decline). The sell-off was concentrated earlier: after reaching a high of nearly $82,186 on May 10, spot prices fell to a low of $60,861 on June 6, then slightly rebounded before Iran nuclear deal was reached on June 14. The BTC ETF market was the main driver of this decline, with net fund flows turning negative, and outflows totaling approximately $5 billion over the past 22 trading days.

As of June 11, total ETF holdings decreased to $78.8 billion from $107.5 billion a month earlier—a roughly 27% drop—and below the peak of $109 billion on May 5, reflecting ongoing redemptions and declining remaining holdings. Trading volume remained high during this period, averaging about $1.37 billion daily, with activity spiking early due to macroeconomic uncertainty, then retreating to about $1.15 billion in the last five trading days.

Weak trading conditions have caused multiple on-chain profitability indicators to decline. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) fell to 0.20 (30-day average 0.25, down from 0.33 last month), roughly at the 18th percentile of the past four years, below the 0.40 average over the past year and 0.37 over four years. The latest data shows Bitcoin prices have entered the “Hope/Fear” zone. Profit supply ratio dropped from 64% to 54%, well below the approximately 81% four-year average, and only at the 9th to 12th percentile historically. The loss supply ratio is near a four-year high, at the 95th percentile, more than two standard deviations above the average.

Realized losses in 2026 will exceed realized profits by $54 billion

Data source: Glassnode, as of June 15, 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This article is not intended to recommend buying or selling any securities mentioned.

The key point is that holders are not profit-taking but are forced to sell at a loss. Daily realized profits plummeted 57% month-over-month, with a 30-day average of only $194M (the 13th percentile over the past four years), down from $447M in the previous cycle; meanwhile, realized losses surged 78%, from $402 million to $714 million. The realized profit/loss ratio (RPLR) fell below 1.0, from 1.11 to 0.27, indicating losses far outweigh gains. Over the past two years, this ratio averaged 2.2. The proportion of unrealized losses relative to market cap nearly doubled, rising 88% MoM to about 15%, at the 79th percentile, confirming recent widespread declines and large token price drops.

Using a 30-day average, the RPLR can serve as a short-term trend indicator. When RPLR is below 1, with losses exceeding gains, Bitcoin tends to produce below-normal returns over the next 1 to 6 months, and this underperformance is statistically significant. Higher RPLR values are associated with normal or above-normal levels, but extreme profit excess scenarios are not better than average, and the apparent 2-3 year mean reversion cycle is too simplistic to be convincing. On June 14, the 30-day RPLR was 0.28, indicating overall market losses, and historical data suggest that returns over the next one or two quarters may be below expectations. Although statistically weak, future returns over a year or longer tend to be above average.

Median forward returns under the 30-day RPLR mechanism

Options market shifts to defensive stance, with put options premiums rising

BTC put options premiums increased by 46% MoM and 14% YoY; the call/put options ratio reversed to 0.73 (10th percentile)

Over the past 30 days, with Bitcoin prices down about 10%, hedging demand shifted back toward downside protection, and the options market turned sharply defensive. Paid put options premiums surged 46% to $441.3 million, while call options premiums fell 34% to $321.3 million, causing the call/put premium ratio to drop from 1.61 to 0.73 (10th percentile). Currently, paid put premiums are at the 82nd percentile, almost opposite to last month’s call-dominated positions. Open interest slightly declined but remains structurally high, with total open interest (OI) down 3.4% MoM to $34.2 billion, at the 84th percentile.

Implied volatility remains near historic lows, but current buying activity is mainly concentrated in puts. The 1-month implied volatility (IV) for calls is nearly unchanged at 36.6% (4th percentile historically), lingering near multi-year lows. Meanwhile, the 1-month IV for puts increased by 2.3 percentage points to 46.5%. This skews the market: the 1-month put/call IV spread widened from +7.0 percentage points (80th percentile) a month ago to +9.9 percentage points now.

On-chain data reveals Bitcoin holder behavior

Data source: Glassnode, as of June 15, 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This article is not intended to recommend buying or selling any securities mentioned.

Token transfer volume, or “token expenditure,” decreased MoM but remains above last year’s levels. Over the 30 days ending June 14, 2026, expenditure declined 5.2% MoM to 22.2 million BTC, but increased 21.6% YoY. Older tokens saw larger declines, with holdings over one year decreasing 10.8% MoM to 1.55 million BTC.

Using 30-day expenditure divided by token holdings as a turnover metric, most age groups saw MoM declines, with the 2-3 year group dropping the most (-51%), while the 5-7 year and 10+ year groups declined about 6%. The only exception was the 5-7 year group, which increased 7% MoM. YoY expenditure was higher in longer-held coins, with the 10+ year group up 194%, the 2-3 year group up 39%, the 3-5 year group up 34%, and the 7-10 year group up 26%. Conversely, the 1-2 year group declined 22%, and the 5-7 year group fell 38%.

Interestingly, Bitcoin’s holding periods are also revealing. The total amount of coins held over a year approaches 12.31 million BTC, representing 61.4% of circulating supply, up 2.3% MoM but roughly flat YoY (down 0.4%). Among coins held over a year, the 1-2 year group saw the most significant growth (up 9.9% MoM, mainly driven by a 31% MoM increase in holdings held 6-12 months), followed by the 5-7 year group (up 4.9%). Holdings in the 2-3 and 3-5 year groups declined by 10 basis points and 2.3%, respectively. The 3-5 year group’s holdings performed most notably, down 30.7% YoY, now 22.7% below its 4-year moving average. The key point is the composition of declines, not the total number: over the past year, this group acquired 6.41 million BTC, held for over 3 years; lost 3.99 million BTC held over 5-7 years; and transferred out 3.31 million BTC. Of the coins flowing out, about 55% appreciated in value, while only 45% were actually spent.

Data source: Glassnode, as of June 15, 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This article is not intended to recommend buying or selling any securities mentioned.

Bitcoin miners face pressure, daily revenue remains low

Daily miner revenue down 26% YoY

Data source: Glassnode, as of June 15, 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This article is not intended to recommend buying or selling any securities mentioned.

On-chain miner total balance continues to decline, with the total Bitcoin held by miner addresses approaching 1.78 million BTC. While roughly flat YoY and MoM, this is down from about 1.83 million BTC at the start of 2023, currently around 37% of the 2023-high range. Contrary to the widespread selling of Bitcoin by miners to fund AI development, Marathon bought 1,000 BTC worth $66 million on June 16, 2026, after selling 20,880 BTC at an average price of $70.1k in Q1. Nonetheless, data shows that during periods of low prices, most miners continue to sell newly mined Bitcoin to cover operational costs.

In May 2026, miner revenue was approximately $1.12 billion, down about 26% YoY (and about 18% YoY in April). On a daily basis, current revenue is only at the 17th percentile over the past 12 months and the 37th percentile since 2023. Funds are slowly flowing out, while revenue remains in the lower third of recent ranges, highlighting why many miners rely on Bitcoin sales and diversification into AI and high-performance computing to maintain cash flow.

Mining companies turn to AI: IREN and TeraWulf expand computing capacity

• On May 26, IREN signed a $1.6 billion Blackwell system procurement agreement with Dell for its $3.4 billion AI cloud management contract. The system is scheduled to be operational in early 2027 at its site in Childress, Texas, with management expecting annual revenue to grow from approximately $3.7 billion to $4.4 billion.

• On May 26, TeraWulf added a 285-acre Muskie data campus in Eastern Kentucky, expected to support over 1 GW of AI and HPC workloads.

FAQs

Why did Bitcoin experience selling pressure in the first half of June 2026?

The 30-day average price dropped to about $70,321, down 10.3% MoM. Over the past 22 trading days, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows of about $5 billion, with 19 days of net outflows. The outflows mainly concentrated in spot products rather than derivatives, indicating investors are reducing holdings rather than just hedging.

What does the realized profit/loss ratio (RPLR) tell investors?

RPLR compares the USD value of coins that have appreciated versus those that have depreciated over a specific period. As realized losses increase and realized gains decrease, the ratio falls below 1.0. Historically, when below 1.0, it often indicates capitulative selling rather than profit-taking, and is associated with returns below normal over the next 1 to 6 months.

Why are Bitcoin miners selling coins and moving into AI?

As of May 2026, miner revenue declined 26% YoY to about $1.12 billion, with daily revenue near the 37th percentile since 2023. Many miners are selling newly mined Bitcoin to cover operational costs during low-price periods. Additionally, operators like IREN and TeraWulf are reallocating power and data center capacity toward AI and HPC to diversify cash flows.