On June 23, Trump issued a statement saying that Iran has "completely and thoroughly agreed" to accept the highest level of nuclear inspections long-term or even permanently; if they do not agree, negotiations will be terminated.

At the same time, it was announced that based on Iran's "concessions," the Strait would remain open, U.S. warships are on standby, and re-blocking could occur if necessary. Frozen assets are deposited into a U.S.-controlled escrow account, specifically for purchasing American food and medical supplies.

However, Iran has strongly refuted these claims! Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagheri stated that there are no plans for IAEA inspectors to visit damaged nuclear facilities. Permanent UN Geneva representative Bahrami also directly dismissed the U.S. claims, saying that no such decision has been made, and there are no discussions of this kind. Iran's Central Bank governor Hemmati also stated that, according to the signed memorandum of understanding, Iran has no obligation to purchase agricultural products from the U.S.

Disagreements over nuclear inspections represent the third public rupture since the signing of the agreement; previously, conflicts centered on the management rights of the Strait and the use of oil revenues. Regarding the Strait, Bahrami confirmed that commercial ships are fully open for 60 days without charges. From June 22, at least 36 ships have passed through the Strait, the highest daily number since the outbreak of hostilities in late February, nearly one-third of pre-war levels.

Iran and Oman issued a joint statement that they will negotiate the future management mechanism and fee standards for the Strait.

In the U.S. stock market, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 7.87%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.21%. Data shows that traders shifted from expecting one rate hike two weeks ago to betting on two rate hikes within the year.

The simultaneous deterioration of three disagreements makes the implementation of the agreement fragile. The 60-day Strait opening is a short-term risk mitigation, but if disagreements over nuclear inspections lead to a breakdown in negotiations, re-imposition of blockades could be triggered.

Bitcoin remains fragile around the $62,000 region. Before the PCE data, any setbacks between the U.S. and Iran or rising rate hike expectations could accelerate testing the $60,000–$60,400 range. $BTC