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End-of-month options expiration is here again, and many people are starting to ask Brother Tong: Will the market change direction?
First, the conclusion: the expiration date doesn't determine the direction, but it will give the steering wheel a couple of sharp turns.
You might think that with billions of dollars expiring, there will be a sudden surge or crash; in reality, big funds have already set up their positions a few days before expiration.
When the day arrives, what happens most often isn't a one-sided move, but pinning up and down, sweeping back and forth, first clearing out those chasing gains and cutting losses, then slowly grinding.
Because for the big purple crystal, the most comfortable situation isn't making the traders feel good, nor making the short-term traders feel good, but making both sides uncomfortable.
Prices swing back and forth at key levels, with both bullish and bearish traders getting squeezed—this is the fixed routine of expiration week.
Right now, Bitcoin is stuck in a consolidation zone, macro news, interest rate expectations, geopolitical tensions all boiling in one pot, and adding the variable of options expiration, volatility will only amplify, not diminish.
But to be honest, Brother Tong says: the real big gains are never given to you after the news is announced.
By the time everyone understands, the market trend has often already run far ahead.
The most valuable time in the market is precisely when most people are hesitant, wavering, unsure of which side to stand on.
Some are still studying the news, while others have already started analyzing what happens after the news.
The most valuable thing in the market has never been the news itself, but the reaction after the news lands.
The rest, let the market continue to write the story. $BTC $ETH $SOL #以太坊基金会重组降本