MU reports after hours tonight. The market's cards are now laid out clearly — Q3 EPS of 19.72, revenue of 19.72, revenue of $34.5 billion, with a year-over-year profit growth of 932%. HBM capacity will be sold out for the entire year of 2026, with an expected gross margin of 81%.

My hesitation isn't about the Q3 numbers — they are likely to beat expectations. The real question is: is the 81% gross margin a structural change or a cyclical peak? Goldman’s target price of 400 is betting on the latter, believing that the boom-bust nature of storage chips isn't so easily rewritten. But MU is now signing multi-year fixed-price contracts, which is definitely different from the previous logic of selling DRAM at spot prices.
A storage chip company with a market value reaching 1.28 trillion. Tonight’s guidance is ten times more important than the Q3 figures themselves.
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