Deepening of long liquidation cycles, signs of capitulation among long-term holders.

A whale on the Hyperliquid platform, holding a total of $415 million in long positions across 7 addresses, including 120k ETH and 2,000 BTC, currently has an unrealized loss of $91.46 million. Its average entry price for BTC is $71,134, about $10,000 below the current price, and has not yet triggered forced liquidation.

Cryptocurrency institutional strategy positions have a total unrealized loss of $10.47 billion, with realized losses on BTC reaching $889 million, a new high since the FTX collapse in November 2022.

The market is experiencing the deepest long liquidation cycle since the FTX event, and capitulation is ongoing rather than nearing its end.

The key signal is that MicroStrategy has broken its "no sale" principle and sold 32 BTC, with long-term BTC holders having an overall unrealized loss ratio of 15.5%, resonating with previous miner capitulations and long-term whale sell-offs over 7 years, indicating that selling pressure has spread from short-term leverage liquidations to long-term holder capitulation.

If the $415 million whale position is forcibly liquidated, it could trigger a chain reaction of selling pressure. The entry average of $71,134 suggests significant trapped positions at that level, and the $10.47 billion in institutional unrealized losses also lean toward a rebound and reduction of risk through selling. The realized losses, reaching a new high since November 2022, confirm that the depth of capitulation is approaching an extreme but has not yet fully cleared.

$62,000 is the short-term bullish/bearish dividing line, with the next testing levels at $60,400–$60,000 below. It is not recommended to heavily buy the dip before the PCE data release. $BTC