$BTC June 24th Today's News

Today’s market focus continues to ferment around the Federal Reserve's hawkish June decision, combined with the latest CME interest rate futures pricing, Wall Street investment bank divergences, and market linkage trends, summarized as follows:
1. Latest interest rate probabilities (real-time FedWatch today)
The probability of maintaining the 3.50%-3.75% rate in July is 62.6%, with a 37.4% chance of a 25 basis point hike; the September rate hike probability rises to 50.6%, and the market prices in nearly a 90% chance of two rate hikes by the end of the year.
2. June policy meeting core review (market logic)
The Federal Reserve has held steady for the fourth consecutive time, with the interest rate range at 3.5%-3.75%; the policy statement completely removes forward guidance related to rate cuts, and the inflation outlook for the year is raised to 3.6%, with the median interest rate increased to 3.8%; half of the 18 voting members expect a rate hike within the year, only one expects a rate cut. New Chair Waller has launched five major reform working groups to weaken the role of the dot plot guidance.
3. Wall Street investment bank views today are polarized
Hawkish camp: Bank of America forecasts three rate hikes for the year, Deutsche Bank expects two hikes, and simultaneously lowers gold price expectations;
Dovish camp: UBS issued a statement today warning that the market is over-trading rate hikes, expecting the high interest rate environment to persist into the second half of the year, with rate cuts not beginning until early 2027.
4. Market linkage performance today
U.S. Treasury yields remain volatile at high levels, the dollar index stabilizes at 101.8, hitting a new high for the year; global non-U.S. currencies are under pressure; gold ETFs have experienced five consecutive weeks of large net outflows, London gold continues to weaken; tech growth stocks are under pressure from high interest rates. Several domestic banks have raised margin requirements for precious metals trading today to prevent sharp gold price fluctuations.
5. Key follow-up observations
Multiple Federal Reserve regional presidents will continue to speak publicly this week, with the July FOMC meeting becoming the next policy window; inflation and employment data will directly influence whether rates are raised or not.
Risk reminder: The content is for macro information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice.