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Westpac Bank: Still expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates in August

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The news from Banking界: After the CPI data was released on Wednesday, Westpac Bank still maintained its forecast for an August rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Westpac Bank said that May’s overall CPI came in below expectations mainly due to declines in tourism, clothing, and entertainment prices, and that most of this was attributable to seasonal factors, so it did not change its assessment that potential inflation pressures are intensifying. Westpac Bank noted that the May data more strongly suggests that second-round effects from Middle East supply shocks are expanding, with rising costs for fuel, transportation, plastics, and chemical products gradually feeding into more areas beyond energy-related goods. Westpac Bank warned that wage cost pressures in the second half of 2026 may further lift inflation, especially in market-oriented service industries. At the same time, policy support measures, including fuel consumption tax relief, are expected to be phased out gradually over the coming months, which will keep inflation risks elevated until after the August monetary policy meeting.
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NonceNomad
· 7h ago
Plastic chemical midstream materials are seeing price increases; ultimately, consumers have to pay the bill, and it is reasonable for expectations of interest rate hikes to be heating up.
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CircuitDaydreamer
· 8h ago
Seasonal factors declining ≠ trend reversal; banks’ judgment is based on the diffusion of secondary effects, with coherent logic.
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Pragmatists
· 8h ago
The supply shock wave in the Middle East is still fermenting, and it is only a matter of time before fuel chemical costs are transmitted downstream.
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LimeMulti-Signature
· 8h ago
By 2026, wage pressures are already being used as a talking point in advance, it seems the inflation narrative will be extended.
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BridgeHopBella
· 8h ago
Westpac Bank's prediction is quite firm; even with CPI decline, they do not change their view on interest rate hikes.
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