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Quantum Countdown to 2031—Will a 5-Year Window Be Enough for BTC to Complete Protocol Upgrades?
2031 is the deadline for U.S. federal compliance, less than 5 years from now. The protocol upgrade of the BTC network requires consensus across the entire network, and every major upgrade in history has taken years of debate. The migration to post-quantum cryptography is more complex than any previous upgrade.
Is a 5-year window sufficient? The answer is seriously not enough. The decision-making efficiency of the BTC community is extremely low, and any hard fork involving cryptographic changes will trigger prolonged debates. Technically, the migration difficulty is enormous, and achieving social consensus is even more challenging.
I believe that by then, a "temporary solution + delay" scenario will likely occur, with security risks exposed in stages.