Launching before June 30th is a very low probability rare scenario.


Betting on the new product being released before June 30th has only an 8% chance, with odds as high as 11.76x; the blue curve has been oscillating downward over the long term, and near June 24th it sharply plummeted, with funds continuously pessimistic about landing before the end of this month.
Over 90% of the funds believe that the flagship reasoning model cannot be launched within June.
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