From Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action Analysis of BTC Short-term Trends

$BTC ‌1. Dow Theory
Main trend (1-hour level): The medium-term downtrend since the high of 82,430 on May 10 remains ongoing, but recent significant reversal signals have appeared. After panic sell-off to 59,095 on June 5, a strong rebound occurred on June 7–8, reaching up to 64,186. On June 9, "gap opening, decline with increased volume" from 63,454 straight down to 60,783, and on June 10, the price continued to decline early in the session to 60,828 (a new low since the rebound began), but recovered with a V-shaped bounce to 62,747 in the afternoon. On June 11, a stronger upward push reached 63,775. From June 12–13, the price oscillated at high levels, then on June 14–15, it attempted to rise again, reaching 67,225. However, June 16–18 saw three consecutive days of sharp decline, with a crash to 62,238 on June 18. From June 19–22, a slight rebound to 64,401, then on June 23–24, a pullback to 62,783 closed the session. Although the medium-term downtrend has not been fully reversed, the lows since June 5 (59,095 → 60,828 → 62,238) are gradually rising, indicating weakening downward momentum, but the pullback on June 23–24 shows the bulls are still lacking strength.
Short-term trend (15-minute level): From June 18–24, the movement shows a "deep correction + stabilization rebound + further correction" oscillation. On June 18, after opening at 64,420, the price plunged to 62,238. From June 19–22, a slight rebound to 64,401, then on June 23–24, a correction back to 62,783. The short-term highs moved down from 67,254 (6/15) to 66,928 (6/16), then to 65,507 (6/16 close), 64,038 (6/17), and back to 64,401 (6/22). The lows moved up from 62,238 (6/18) to 62,254 (6/19), then to 62,500 (6/20), 63,200 (6/21), and 62,783 (6/24). Highs are decreasing while lows are rising, indicating a shift from a downtrend to a consolidation.
Dow conclusion: The primary trend remains downward, but the downward momentum is significantly weakening (lows rising). The short-term trend is transitioning from decline to consolidation. The pullback on June 24 broke below the June 22 high of 64,401, returning the market to a bearish oscillation state. The key short-term resistance zone is around 64,000–64,500 (near the June 22 high of 64,401). A successful breakout above this zone would confirm a reversal of the short-term downtrend; if the rebound stalls at 64,000 and falls back below 62,000, the downtrend continues, targeting the 60,828–59,095 range.
2. Chan Theory
Structure of Fractals: On the daily chart, multiple valid top and bottom fractals are marked.
Top fractals: Appear at 82,430 (May 10), 82,006 (May 14), 67,243 (June 15), 66,928 (June 16), etc. The top fractals on June 15–16 show a significant downward shift from around 82,000 to 67,000, indicating the bearish force is recovering.
Bottom fractals: Appear at 59,095 (June 5), 60,828 (June 10), 62,238 (June 18), 62,254 (June 19), 61,541 (June 24), etc. The bottom fractals from June 18–24 show a notable upward shift from around 59,000 to 61,500–62,000, indicating bullish momentum is recovering.
Pen (Bi) and Line Segments: From the bottom fractal at 60,828 to the top fractal at 67,243 (June 15), forming a very strong upward stroke, approximately +6,415. Then from 67,243 top to 62,238 bottom (June 18), forming a downward stroke, about -5,005, with a strength of roughly 78% of the upward stroke, indicating a strong correction. Next, from 62,238 bottom to 64,401 top (June 22), forming an upward stroke of about +2,163, with about 43% strength of the previous downward stroke, showing bulls are regaining strength. Then from 64,401 top to 62,783 bottom (June 24), forming a downward stroke of about -1,618, with about 75% of the previous upward stroke, indicating bears are regaining strength.
Central Zone: In the 63,000–65,000 range, the candlesticks from June 11–16 are densely interwoven, forming a central zone per Chan Theory①. Currently, the price at 62,783 is below this zone, indicating a pullback after a breakdown of the central zone. In the 62,000–63,000 range, the candlesticks from June 18–24 are densely interwoven, forming a second central zone② (building phase). In the 66,000–66,500 range, candlesticks from June 14–16 densely interweave, forming an upward central zone, but the sharp decline on June 17–18 broke this zone, entering an accelerated decline phase after the zone breakdown.
Chan conclusion: The upward stroke is extremely strong (+6,415), but the downward stroke is also strong (-5,005). Currently, the upward stroke is weaker (+2,163), and the downward stroke is recovering (-1,618), indicating intense battle between bulls and bears. The market is in a low-position oscillation after the downward stroke extension, with no clear termination signal yet. Short-term focus: whether 62,783 can form an effective bottom fractal; if yes, the downward stroke may end. If the price drops below 62,000 directly, the downward extension will accelerate, with high risk of falling to 60,000–59,000.
3. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on the daily wave structure, the movement since the high of 82,430 on May 10 is divided into typical "five-wave decline + ABC rebound + correction + rebound + correction" pattern:
Wave 1 (Crash): From 82,430 down to 75,826 (May 26), about -6,604.
Wave 2 (Rebound): From 75,826 up to 77,280 (May 26), about +1,454.
Wave 3 (Main decline): From 77,280 down to 66,704 (June 2), about -10,576.
Wave 4 (Rebound): From 66,704 up to 74,154 (May 31), about +7,450.
Wave 5 (Final crash): From 74,154 down to 59,095 (June 5), about -15,059.
A wave (Rebound): From 59,095 up to 64,186 (June 8), about +5,091.
B wave (Correction): From 64,186 down to 60,828 (June 10), about -3,358. The correction in wave B is about 65.9% of wave A, a typical retracement.
C wave (Expansion): From 60,828 up to 67,225 (June 15), about +6,397. The current amplitude of wave C is about 125.6% of wave A. If wave C is equal in length to wave A, the target is approximately 65,919; if 1.618 times wave A, about 68,356.
Wave C correction: From 67,225 down to 62,238 (June 18), about -4,987, a deep correction (~77.9% of wave C's rise). Then from 62,238 up to 64,401 (June 22), about +2,163, a moderate rebound (~43.4% of wave C's correction). Finally, from 64,401 down to 62,783 (June 24), about -1,618, another deep correction (~74.8% of wave C's rebound).
Wave conclusion: The market is in a phase of deep correction after wave C's strong expansion (+6,397), with a moderate rebound (+2,163), then a further correction (-1,618). The current rebound is weak, and the correction is large. If the price stabilizes around 62,500 and breaks above 64,401, wave C may extend, targeting 65,000–67,000. If it falls below 62,000 and continues downward, wave C fails, and a new downward impulsive wave begins, targeting 60,000–59,000.
4. Volume-Price Relationship
Overall volume-price features: On June 18, there was extremely negative volume-price behavior. During the sharp decline, volume surged sharply; during the rebound, volume contracted; during the late decline, volume remained high. The volume increased with dense declining candles, indicating strong bearish force. From June 19–24, the pattern shows shrinking volume during stabilization, mild volume during rebound, and another volume surge during decline, suggesting bearish exhaustion but insufficient bullish strength.
Key volume-price nodes:
- June 16: A volume spike on a bearish candle (volume 25.1 billion), from 66,289 to 65,601, with a body of -688, confirming high-level selling pressure.
- June 18: An enormous volume bearish candle (volume 30.4 billion), from 64,420 down to 62,896, body -1,524, confirming a bearish explosion and panic selling.
- June 19: A shrinking volume bullish candle (volume 24 billion), from 62,883 slightly up to 62,894, body +11, confirming bearish exhaustion.
- June 20: Mild volume bullish candle (volume 26 billion), from 62,894 rebound to 63,514, body +620, indicating bulls are testing the market.
- June 21: Shrinking volume consolidation (volume 22 billion), from 63,514 slightly down to 63,420, body -94, indicating balanced forces.
- June 22: Mild volume bullish candle (volume 25 billion), from 63,420 rebound to 64,401, body +981, confirming bulls' recovery.
- June 23: Volume surge on a bearish candle (volume 28 billion), from 64,401 down to 62,524, body -1,877, indicating renewed bearish force.
- June 24: Shrinking volume bullish candle (volume 26 billion), from 62,524 slightly up to 62,783, body +259, confirming bearish exhaustion.
Recent 7 days: From 67,254 oscillating down to 62,238, then rebounding to 64,401, and back to 62,783, with a pattern of "volume surge + rebound with shrinking volume + volume surge again + stabilization with shrinking volume," market awaits direction in the 62,500–63,500 zone.
Volume-price conclusion: The large volume during the June 18 and June 23 declines indicates strong bearish force. The shrinking volume on June 24 suggests bearish exhaustion. Key observation points: if the rebound near 64,000–64,500 shows volume stagnation, wave C's rebound ends; if volume surges below 62,000, the downward impulsive wave begins.
5. Order Flow
Volume Profile: Over the last 7 days (June 18–24), the Point of Control (POC) is at 63,473. This is the area with the densest trading, forming the current key value zone. The current price at 62,783 is below POC, indicating a slight advantage for sellers.
Current analysis: Price at 62,783 is about 690 below POC, in the below-value zone with minor deviation. In order flow theory, being below POC suggests short-term sellers are slightly dominant, and the market is shifting from a premium to a discount state. The current price is approaching POC, with significant resistance around 63,500.
High Volume Nodes (HVN):
- 67,000–67,500: Resistance HVN (dense trading area after the rebound high on June 15, forming strong resistance)
- 65,000–66,000: Secondary resistance HVN (dense trading area from June 14–16, forming resistance)
- 63,500–64,500: Core HVN (area of POC, current resistance)
- 62,000–62,500: Support HVN (massive volume zone after the June 18–19 crash, current support)
- 60,500–61,000: Strong support HVN (massive volume zone after the early June 10 crash)
Delta analysis: During the declines on June 18 and 23, Delta turned significantly negative (-5 billion level), confirming active selling. During the stabilization on June 24, Delta slightly turned positive (+0.5 billion), confirming bearish force weakening. Currently, Delta MA12 has recovered to near zero, indicating buying strength is returning, and selling pressure is easing.
Order flow conclusion: Price below POC 63,473, short-term sellers have the advantage. Resistance at 63,500 and 64,000, if Delta remains positive with volume breakout, could push toward 65,000; if Delta stays negative and price drops below 62,000, wave C fails.
6. Price Action
Support and Resistance levels:
- Strong resistance: 82,430 (high point), 78,003 (May 26 rebound high), 74,154 (May 31 rebound high), 67,225 (June 15 rebound high)
- Key resistance: 65,600 (June 16 close), 64,500 (psychological level), 64,401 (June 22 rebound high), 63,775 (June 11 rebound high)
- Key support: 62,500 (psychological level), 62,238 (June 18 crash low), 61,500 (June 11 early low), 60,828 (June 10 crash low), 59,095 (June 5 crash low)
Candlestick patterns:
- June 15: A long upper shadow bullish candle (body 601, upper shadow 941), from 65,714 to 66,315, high at 67,254, indicating bullish momentum but encountering selling pressure at high levels, forming a "shooting star" warning.
- June 18: A long real body bearish candle (body -1,524, lower shadow 234), from 64,420 down to 62,896, indicating strong bearish force, forming a "bearish engulfing" pattern.
- June 19: Doji (body 11), from 62,883 slightly up to 62,894, indicating market indecision.
- June 20: Long lower shadow bullish candle (body 620, lower shadow 156), from 62,894 rebound to 63,514, showing bulls starting to test the market, forming a "hammer" pattern.
- June 22: Long lower shadow bullish candle (body 981, lower shadow 181), from 63,420 to 64,401, indicating continued bullish recovery, forming a "bullish engulfing" pattern.
- June 23: Long real body bearish candle (body -1,877, lower shadow 123), from 64,401 down to 62,524, indicating renewed bearish force, forming a "bearish engulfing" pattern.
- June 24: Long lower shadow bullish candle (body 259, lower shadow 242), from 62,524 slightly up to 62,783, indicating bullish recovery, forming a "hammer" pattern.
Trend structure:
- Short-term: In a downward channel (connecting 67,254, 65,507, 64,038, 62,238), but from June 20–24, signs of stabilization and rebound suggest a possible breakout of the downward channel.
- Mid-term: The downtrend since May 10 (82,430) persists, but the higher lows since June 5 (59,095) indicate weakening downward momentum.
Price action conclusion: Currently in a low oscillation zone after a sharp decline, with 63,500 as a key support/resistance level: a breakout suggests a trend reversal toward higher targets (64,000–64,500); rejection and fall back below 62,000 suggest testing support levels.
Comprehensive assessment:
Dow Theory indicates the main trend remains downward but with weakening downward momentum (higher lows). The short-term trend is shifting from decline to consolidation, with key levels at 64,000 (up) and 62,000 (down). Chan Theory shows extremely strong upward strokes (+6,415) but also strong downward strokes (-5,005). Currently, upward strokes are weaker (+2,163), and downward strokes are recovering (-1,618), in a low-position oscillation after extension. Elliott Wave confirms a completed five-wave decline, with ABC rebound and wave C (+6,397) completing, followed by deep correction (-4,987), moderate rebound (+2,163), and further correction (-1,618). Volume-price signals show large volume during crashes and shrinking volume during stabilization, warning of exhaustion. Order flow indicates the POC at 63,473, with price below, Delta MA12 near zero, suggesting short-term seller dominance but potential for bullish breakout if volume and Delta turn positive. Price action shows multiple candlestick reversal patterns, with key resistance at 63,500.
Short-term strategy suggestions:
- Bullish scenario: If price stabilizes around 62,000–62,500 with shrinking volume, bottom fractal formation, and Delta turning positive, consider long positions targeting 63,500 → 64,000, with stop-loss at 61,500.
- Bearish scenario: If the rebound near 63,500–64,000 shows rejection with volume increase and downward breakout, confirm wave C failure and initiate short positions targeting 62,000 → 61,000, with stop-loss at 64,500.
Current state: At 62,783, in a low oscillation zone after a sharp decline, short-term bias is neutral. Wait for a confirmed breakout above 63,500 to reverse the trend or a break below 62,000 to continue the decline.