The seasonal blood draw effect of the World Cup

Fund flow during the World Cup should not be ignored either.
The global betting volume for the World Cup reaches hundreds of billions of dollars, with a large amount of capital shifting from mainstream cryptocurrencies to sports betting and prediction markets.
On-chain prediction markets (such as Polymarket) also attract a significant amount of liquidity within the circle—moving funds from mainstream coins to World Cup betting contracts, which is a transfer of funds within the circle.
Retail traders account for over 60% of intraday short-term orders, and during the World Cup, many traders stop monitoring the market, leading to thinner order books and reduced market depth, which can cause larger price spikes with the same amount of funds.
Crypto VC monthly trading volume has fallen to its lowest level since 2021.

Polymarket currently assigns a 99.45% probability that Bitcoin will remain above $56,000 on June 24.
Analysts warn that if it falls below $60k, the technical pattern may point toward the $54,000 region.

Overall structural assessment: It is still in the "bear-dominated, rebound weak" bottoming phase.
The daily chart shows an extremely long upper shadow, indicating the short-term bullish rebound has ended.
Bullish attempts are weak, the market is dominated by bears, and a double-top reversal pattern has formed on the 4-hour chart, with a series of large bearish candles breaking below short-term moving averages.
The current slight rebound is only a technical correction from oversold conditions, with no reversal momentum.