#黄金早报 | June 24, 2026, Wednesday

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### 📊 Core Data

| Indicator | Value |
|------|------|
| International Spot | **$4,121/oz** |
| Intraday Drop | **-1.57%** (–$65) |
| Intraday Range | High $4,198 / Low $4,091 |
| 7-Day Change | **-5.9%** (Last week $4,380 → Today $4,121) |
| ATH Retracement | **-26.2%** (End of January $5,600 → Today $4,121) |
| Shanghai Gold Main Contract | 897.90 yuan/gram (–2.04%) |
| Gold T+D | 898.93 yuan/gram (–1.69%) |
| US Dollar Index | 101+ (Near one-year high) |

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### 🔥 Last Night’s Major Events

1. **Fed Hawkishness Continues to Pressure**: June FOMC dot plot shows 9 members support rate hikes this year, rate cut expectations fully eliminated, CME prices in an 89% chance of a December hike.

2. **Wall Street Collective Downgrades Gold Price Targets**: Goldman Sachs $5,400 → $4,900; Deutsche Bank Q3 target cut by 21% to $4,300, warning that 3-4 rate hikes could push gold to **$3,800**; Bank of America’s $6,000 target invalidated.

3. **US-Iran Negotiations Make Further Progress**: Final agreement roadmap within 60 days, Iran granted 60-day sanctions waiver to export oil, Strait of Hormuz shipping expected to improve, oil prices plummeted 3%.

4. **ETF Frenzy Outflows**: Global gold ETFs have net outflows for 5 consecutive weeks, weekly outflow of $4.27 billion hitting a yearly high; domestic gold ETF redemptions over 103.8 billion yuan in nearly 3 months.

5. **A-Share Precious Metals Sector Bloodbath**: Sector index down over 9%, 10 stocks hit limit down, Shandong Gold -8.9%, China Gold -10%.

6. **Domestic Banks Tighten Precious Metal Trading**: Several banks raise gold T+D margin ratios to 120%-140%, some banks halt personal gold trading services at month’s end.

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Resistance and Support
**International Spot (USD/Ounce)**

| Level | Resistance | Support |
|------|------|------|
| First Level | $4,140–$4,150 | $4,100 |
| Second Level | $4,160–$4,180 | $4,080–$4,060 |
| Key Level | **$4,200** (watershed, only above can end short-term bearishness) | **$4,000** (psychological threshold, this week’s limit) |
| Deep Level | $4,220–$4,250 | $3,920–$3,960 |

> $4,120 has shifted from support to strong resistance—after breaking below on 6/23, trapped positions concentrated, rebound difficult to stabilize [According to "Where the Wind Never Stops"]

**Domestic Shanghai Gold (Yuan/Gram)**

- Resistance: 908, 912
- Support: 896, 890

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Strategy
**Core Judgment**: Gold has decoupled from geopolitical safe-haven, purely driven by rate logic. Hawkish Powell + Sticky PCE = soaring real interest rates → the cost of holding interest-free assets skyrockets.

**Short-term (Pre-PCE)**:
- Range-bound trading between $4,080–$4,180, buy low and sell high, light positions
- **No chasing shorts, no bottom-fishing**; wait for rebound to $4,140–$4,150 for signs of stagnation before attempting short positions
- Going long at least when $4,080–$4,100 shows increased volume with lower shadow + no new lows the next day

**Mid-term Direction**:
- If PCE exceeds expectations → gold tests $4,000 or even $3,800
- If PCE underperforms → technical rebound to $4,300–$4,400, but the big rate hike cycle remains unchanged, rebound only a correction
- Current bearish trend confirmed, each rebound is a window to add to short positions

**Positioning**: Half Kelly, total position ≤30% before PCE, avoid heavy bets.

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### ⏰ Key Time Nodes

| Time | Event | Impact |
|------|------|------|
| **6/25 Thu 20:30** | 🔴 US May Core PCE (expected 3.4% y/y) | **Most critical data this week**, directly determines rate hike pricing direction |
| 6/25 Thu | US May Durable Goods Orders (expected -4.0%), GDP Final | Auxiliary judgment of economic resilience |
| 6/25 Thu | ECB Economic Bulletin | Global tightening pace |
| 6/26 Fri | US June Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final | Expected 49.0, still low |
| 6/27 Fri | Three FOMC officials’ speeches | Observe Powell’s communication under the framework |
| Early next week | First full trading week after PCE | Directional decision window, maximum volatility |

> PCE data released Thursday evening, market digest on Friday, ferment over the weekend → **Monday and Tuesday next week are the real decision days**, beware of algorithmic stop-loss cascades.

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⚠️ **2013 June Script Repetition Warning**: Macro policy (hawkish shift), fund holdings (large ETF outflows), market sentiment (collective bearishness), price trend (continuous breakdown) four dimensions highly overlap with June 2013. Back then, gold plunged 28% in one month → current pessimistic scenario points to $3,800–$3,900 range. The central bank’s continued gold purchases are the only support, but short-term insufficient to reverse the trend.