Long-term holders' selling volume drops to a 19-month low, and the halving model suggests a bottom may be reached in September — but the market structure has already changed.

Selling pressure usually indicates a bottom area, but this time long-term holders are holding steady, which doesn't mean prices won't continue to fall.
ETF fund outflows continue, $10.6 billion in options expire, and long positions are liquidated for $585 million, with leveraged longs being cleaned out.
The halving model was effective in 2022, but back then there was no ETF, no liquidity stratification led by institutions, and no reshaping of exchange patterns due to MiCA compliance.
On-chain activity is sustained by inscriptions and micro-transactions, yet prices are nearly 50% below their peak.
Supply-side lock-up signals are diverging from demand-side macro selling pressure.
Long-term holders are not selling, but new funds are also reluctant to step in.
Whether a bottom is reached in September depends on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and the resilience of tech stock earnings, not solely on on-chain indicators.
The risk is: if macro pressure persists, lock-up positions may shift from "building up" to "a dammed lake."
Historically, bottoms are never confirmed by a single signal.
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