The U.S. economy is holding up, but pressure on consumers and small businesses is rising

📊 Equifax’s June 2026 Main Street Trends report shows that the U.S. economy remains resilient, but the underlying foundation is becoming more fragile. Job growth and consumer spending are still positive, while inflation, input costs and credit conditions are adding more pressure.
💸 The key point is that U.S. consumers are still spending, but the quality of that spending is weakening. Real disposable income is under pressure, the savings rate has dropped sharply and revolving credit card debt has reached a record high, suggesting that current consumption may be relying more on debt and remaining savings.
🏪 For small businesses, caution is also becoming more visible. Sales expectations have fallen from +16% earlier this year to just +1%, while more firms are raising prices to protect margins. This shows that higher costs are gradually being passed on to consumers.
⚠️ The report is not overly pessimistic, but it sends a clear warning signal for the second half of 2026. If energy-driven inflation persists and consumer spending slows, small businesses, discretionary consumption and U.S. growth expectations could face additional pressure.
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