$BTC | Trade Plan

We're starting to see signs that the relief rally from $59K is running out of momentum.
While we saw $BTC manage a secondary bounce into the $65.5K region, it ultimately failed to reclaim support in any meaningful way. For now, it looks more like a lower high forming after the flush into $62.5K than the beginning of a larger recovery.
That level remains important to me because a sustained reclaim would've started changing my expectations for where the eventual bear market low may form.
As it stands, the roadmap we've been following remains largely intact, so my positioning hasn't changed.
We've already lost the $63.2K higher-low pivot, which shifts my focus back to the $62.5K support level. For me, that's the final line of defence for the current structure.
If that level breaks, I'll continue holding and adding to shorts while looking for a flush into fresh lows. We've already seen two separate sweeps below support, but both were quickly reclaimed, largely due to SPX recovering after the initial sell-off. Once these wicks are lost as support, we should see the continuation move down.
The historical timing is also important given the current structure. June has consistently been one of the most important months of previous bear markets. It's previously delivered the aggressive downside move that sets the mid-cycle low before a prolonged consolidation phase begins.
I'd be willing to reconsider this view if $BTC can reclaim $65.5K and establish acceptance back above it.
Until then, I still view this as a lower-high structure within a broader downtrend, and I think the higher probability outcome remains another move lower before this phase of the bear market is complete.
$BTC ‌#Get2SharesOfSKHynixAtZeroCost