I stared at the 12% downtrend of SK Hynix for quite a while. I didn't buy SK Hynix. I bought $DRAM and $MRVL$, and these two will probably follow along with it at the open tonight. South Korea's market was circuit breaker twice during the day yesterday, KOSPI closed down nearly 10%, Samsung and SK Hynix both fell below 12%.

$MU is currently around 1107, up nearly three times this year. The implied volatility for this earnings report's options is 17%. At tomorrow's open, a 17% move in either direction is considered normal.
It's not that I understand Micron that well. It's that I’m very familiar with the scene where everyone bets on a single catalyst. The worst time was when I fully loaded two weeks early, digging into the data so thoroughly I even believed it myself. When the earnings came out, the numbers exceeded expectations, and it still dropped 15%. That time, I finally realized that after pricing in all the good news, meeting expectations is actually a negative signal.
Micron is at this position now. Capacity sold out, technology leading, AI demand never sleeps, the story is at its peak. The more it’s talked up, the smaller the room for surprises left. EPS was 1.91 last year same quarter, aiming for nearly 20 this quarter, revenue expectations up 282%. The market all knows this.
What hasn't been revealed is how management will speak about the next quarter. Saying they’re nervous and will hold out until after 2026, being vague—those are the flaws. Whether HBM, DRAM, NAND contract prices will rise or not, we have to listen. If they can't go up, the story shifts from price hikes to volume growth.
The biggest mistake before earnings is what I’ve done before—digging through a bunch of previews, thinking I understood everything, then rushing in during the last hour. That 17% figure is the market telling you with real money that it’s uncertain. Why should you think you’re sure?
Those two circuit breakers in Asia have already written half the script for Micron’s guidance being soft. $DRAM , I still hold it. No action tonight. Also, $SPCX has already fallen to the first-day opening price. I’ve entered a core position, waiting for the IPO pricing to add to my long-term holdings. Once bought, I won’t move it.