#我的Gate交易时刻

Four Passes of Bull and Bear: This time I don't want to miss the bottom again

Having been in the circle for over ten years, counting up, Little Wealth God has witnessed 4 rounds of bull and bear markets, each with my painful history of “bottom fishing” and “top touching” failures. Today I want to share with everyone:

In 2013, it was my first entry into the crypto world. Bitcoin was booming domestically, and I followed a group of “Chinese Aunties” rushing in wildly. The entry price was around 5,000 RMB, roughly in the middle of a big rise. Not long after entering, I spotted Litecoin, and within two days, Litecoin rose from 80 RMB to 240 RMB. The 10k+ RMB I invested turned into nearly 40k RMB. I thought I was destined for greatness, planning to exit when Litecoin hit 350 and Bitcoin hit 10k. But everyone knows what happened next: the government introduced regulatory policies, and Bitcoin plummeted back to 3,000, Litecoin dropped to 50. With only about 5,000 RMB left, I felt completely confused for the first time.

In 2014, Bitcoin fell to 900 RMB. I bought some at the bottom, feeling like I was gambling. Because I was uncertain, I bought very little.

In 2016, Bitcoin rose to 8,000 RMB. I proudly sold all my holdings, thinking I had escaped the top.

Also in 2016, after seeing Bitcoin fluctuate for a while and then break upward again, I was unwilling to accept it. I shorted Bitcoin at 10,000 RMB, thinking I could catch a big top and get rich quick. But Bitcoin later soared to $20k.

In 2017, Bitcoin reached $20k. I thought I’d wait a bit longer before selling, but I ended up holding for half a year.

In 2018, the bear market dropped from nearly $20k all the way down to $3,100. I started waiting for the bottom at $6,000, convinced it would break previous lows. Sometimes I saw bearish analysis predicting it would fall to $1,000, sometimes I followed community panic. After the $3,100 bottom appeared, I was still waiting for a second dip. By the time I realized it, the price had already rebounded to $10,000. I missed most of the bottom range again.

In 2020, it was even more dramatic: when it crashed to $3,800, I had already planned to buy the dip. But I kept thinking, “It might go even lower, maybe down to $2,000.” I held back from placing an order. That night, it V-shaped rebounded, rallying to over $10,000. I didn’t even get a full position that time, living in regret through the entire bull market.

In the 2022 bear market, the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes drove Bitcoin from over $60k down to $15k. Starting from $20k, I began reviewing lessons from the previous three cycles. But deep down, I couldn’t change my ingrained habits: I drew support lines on the candlesticks, constantly checked analyst predictions, just waiting for that “iron bottom” to go all-in. When it rose from $15k to $30k, I only built 10% of my position, with most funds still on the sidelines waiting for a pullback.

Having been in the circle for over ten years, friends often ask me after hearing my experiences: “You got into Bitcoin so early, why aren’t you financially free yet?” I’ve reflected deeply and realized that what limits my wealth isn’t my vision, but these bad habits:

1. About bottom fishing: Always wanting to buy at the lowest point, waiting for the price to go even lower and lower. But instead of catching the needle, I ended up catching the V-shaped reversal, turning bottom fishing into chasing the rally. Not realizing the value of left-side bottom fishing.

2. About topping out: Like bottom fishing, always wanting to sell at the highest point. “Greed is insatiable,” and profits turn into losses. Failing to exit promptly after taking partial profits, liking to “guess the top,” shorting against the trend, ending up with wiped-out positions.

3. About holding cycles: Not daring to hold cheap chips, and when prices rise, rushing to sell at the top. Lacking long-term vision and perspective, lacking a big-picture mindset.

So I tell myself, I missed Bitcoin at 10,000 RMB and 10,000 USD, but this time I won’t miss Bitcoin at 60,000. And if I were to set a deadline for this holding, I’d hope it’s ten thousand years! 😂