The second half of U.S. cryptocurrency policy: CLARITY Act passes with 60 votes, CFTC "single-person commission" becomes the biggest variable

By: Cleve Mesidor (Executive Director of the Washington Blockchain Foundation)

Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

In this sports season full of Cinderella comeback stories, the crypto industry is also anticipating its own moment in the spotlight—the CLARITY Act that the U.S. Senate is pushing forward may become that crucial “comeback.” However, with two quarters still left before the final whistle, to gather 60 votes for passage, Republicans may need to reach a compromise with the White House on moral issues, while also winning over a few Republican senators who are still watching.

This is only halftime—there are still six months left in the year, and anything could happen. Legislative victories and scores on the field are essentially the same in that multiple factors need to align precisely. Sometimes, burning a bit of sage for good luck isn’t a bad idea—just like the New York Knicks have shown this year.

The second half of the policy year will be a critical period for intensive negotiations between both parties across the House and the Senate. Zooming out, market-structure legislation is only one part of a bigger script, with the goal of building a comprehensive policy and regulatory framework for Web3 and DeFi.

Congress’s calendar is already packed, leaving only more than 40 legislative working days— even if you count the lame-duck session and midterm elections, the time for everyone to plan strategy, adjust the score, and make changes has become extremely tight.

A crowded policy arena

Beyond the prospects of the CLARITY Act, can multiple crypto tax proposals split out from the new PARITY Act catch a bigger legislative “tailwind” and be implemented this year?

Can the core language of the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act pull off a “hail Mary” long throw—formally enshrining developer protections into law?

In addition, the full-court press around the GENUIS rulemaking is still ongoing, and key provisions still need to be finalized.

For crypto enthusiasts, this is like sports fans chasing an entire season: abundant cards, nonstop suspense, exciting yet nerve-wracking.

The CFTC lacks a starting lineup

The fact that a financial regulatory agency is missing four commissioners is deeply concerning for the industry. For the crypto industry, this directly affects expectations for what Washington will do—whether new commissioners can be nominated and confirmed this year remains uncertain.

Even more tricky is who will win the jurisdictional battle over the prediction markets: is it the states, or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)? Or will it ultimately be decided by the Supreme Court?

Of course, this isn’t implying that you should go bet on it.

Crypto champions are about to retire

No matter what the final policy outcome is, the remaining days of this year will likely be bittersweet. Two heavyweight “crypto champions” are about to take off their jerseys from the federal government, and their departures will bring far-reaching effects in both the short term and the long term: SEC Commissioner Hester M. Peirce and U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis.

As a two-term commissioner, Peirce has led the SEC’s crypto special working group and has been a core architect of cross-agency coordination efforts. Lummis serves as chair of the Senate Banking Committee’s Digital Assets Subcommittee; she is a key negotiator in bipartisan compromises and a steadfast advocate of the BRCA.

Outlook for the second half: How industry leaders see it

I interviewed several veteran industry leaders to understand their judgments on the current review of crypto policy. Below are their views on CLARITY, taxation, and prediction markets:

Sara K. Weed (Partner at Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP):

“Undeniably, we are steadily moving in the right direction. But due to the shortage of legislative workdays and election pressures, it’s unlikely that CLARITY will pass in this Congress. Therefore, institutions like the SEC and CFTC will be forced to play a more active role, providing the industry with much-needed certainty. Of course, the question is how far they can go within their existing authority.”

Sulolit “Raj” Mukherjee (CEO of Bodin Advisory):

“If history can be used as a reference, meaningful crypto tax legislation is most likely not to be passed as a standalone bill, but instead embedded in broader tax, budget, or end-of-year omnibus legislation. Several current proposals are relatively focused and have bipartisan consensus, aiming to solve specific issues such as minimum exemption thresholds, the tax treatment of staking, wash sale rules, and information reporting requirements. When these provisions are attached to major bills that must be passed, they are easier to advance. Whether they ultimately get implemented depends on how Congress allocates its time and the scoring mechanisms, and whether lawmakers view crypto tax rules as technical fixes to improve compliance rather than as a broader digital asset policy debate. It’s real that there may be at least one or two measures with a chance to become law this year, but they will very likely be passed in a packaged manner, rather than as a standalone crypto tax bill.”

Rashan Colbert (U.S. Policy Director at Crypto Council for Innovation):

“I won’t predict how the courts will resolve the jurisdictional dispute, but the general direction is already clear: as the category of prediction markets gradually matures, the CFTC is working to build a more enduring regulatory framework for them. The recently issued NPRM is another step toward providing market participants with greater transparency and legal certainty—this field’s user base and trading volume are growing rapidly.

The core question is: should prediction markets be mainly viewed as financial market infrastructure, or broadly categorized as gambling? I believe these markets have the potential to become sophisticated tools for expressing views, hedging risk, and simplifying access to a wide range of events and derivatives on assets. If they are framed too broadly as gambling, it could stifle their potential before they have a chance to develop into legitimate financial infrastructure.”

The second half of crypto policy has already kicked off; the window of opportunity is tight, but the opportunity window still exists. The industry needs continued cross-party communication and pragmatic push to deliver substantive results by 2026.

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