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Analysis: On-chain data indicates that the potential bear market bottom range is between $50,000 and $54,000.
Deep Tide TechFlow News, June 23, according to CoinDesk reports, Bitcoin is currently testing the 200-week moving average (200WMA) at approximately $62,400.
If this support level is broken, market focus may shift to the realized price of about $53,457.
The realized price represents the average on-chain holding cost of Bitcoin across the entire network.
Historically, during 2011, 2015, 2018 to 2019, the March 2020 crash, and the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin briefly fell below this level before establishing a cycle bottom.
Once market prices fall below investors’ holding costs, it often triggers panic selling and extreme pessimism.
From the perspective of holding structure, whales holding between 10k and 100k BTC have an average holding cost of about $54,300.
Super whales holding over 100k BTC have an average cost below $49,000.
If large investors tend to defend the price near their cost basis, the bear market bottom may form in the $50,000 to $54,000 range.
In contrast, retail investors holding less than 1 BTC have an average cost below $48,000, meaning they are still profitable even if prices decline further.