CryptoQuant: Short-term holder capital shrinks by 56%, but no signs of a market-wide crash

On June 23, as Bitcoin retreated to around $62,000, cryptocurrency market Bitcoin holders are returning to an unrealized loss state.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that short-term holders (STH) have experienced a deepening market value retreat to -56%, whereas three months ago this figure was only -26%, indicating that this group’s capital is shrinking significantly.

This retreat depth, from -26% three months ago to -56% now, not only doubles the investment losses for short-term holders but also indicates increasing market pressure and a significant hit to investor confidence.

However, in this context, long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) have experienced a market value retreat close to zero. This signal suggests that although pressure remains, it has not yet evolved into a large-scale withdrawal of LTH funds.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s aNUPL indicator has fallen below zero to -0.14, whereas a month ago, this indicator was near zero, indicating that the market has been under loss pressure in recent months.

Despite the unfavorable situation, this value has not yet reached the extreme levels of previous cycle capitulation (around -0.4), suggesting that current pressure is real but mainly concentrated among short-term holders, not a systemic collapse.

Analysts emphasize that if the aNUPL indicator continues to fall below -0.3, it will confirm a worsening market trend; conversely, if aNUPL rises back above zero, it indicates that market pressure is beginning to ease.

Moreover, if long-term holders’ market value retreat drops significantly below zero, it suggests that market pressure has spread from short-term speculators to long-term investors.

In summary, these key indicators from three dimensions—market trend, pressure range, and relief signals—provide clear reference standards for assessing market conditions.

#比特币 # On-chain data