The opening of Iran-U.S. negotiations, oil prices have already priced in advance—what does the gap between optimistic pricing and actual difficulty mean?

The war premium has basically been cleared, and oil prices have already pre-traded the success of the negotiations. But the final nuclear negotiations have just begun, with the limits on enriched uranium and international inspections—never before have these two issues been successfully negotiated in history. There is a clear and dangerous gap between the optimistic pricing of oil and the real difficulty of the negotiations.

What does this gap mean? It means that oil traders are once again doing what they do best—underestimating the complexity of geopolitics. Iran's nuclear issue isn't something that can be resolved with a simple signature; every inspection, every adjustment of limits, can be used by either side to demand more. Oil prices are currently falling so happily, as if all bad news are good news.

I believe this gap will eventually be filled by a rebound in oil prices. The probability of negotiation failure is much higher than success, and once it breaks down, oil prices will rise faster and more fiercely than before. The market is currently oversimplifying the negotiations. #美伊谈判第一轮结束