Wintermute: The Federal Reserve’s hawkish shift turns first into pressure on the crypto market, and in the short term it may continue to trade in a range with oscillations

Deep Tide TechFlow News. On June 23, according to a weekly market report released by market maker Wintermute, there were major changes in the macro backdrop during the week of June 22: the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but the wording of its statement was tightened significantly—its easing bias was completely removed. In the dot plot, the median rose from 3.4% to 3.8%; among 18 committee members, 17 believed inflation risks are skewed to the upside. The probability of a rate hike in December surged from roughly 24% from the previous month to approximately 77%.

At the same time, the Iran agreement originally scheduled to be signed on June 19 was declared to have fallen apart after Israel’s airstrike on Lebanon. Iran withdrew from the negotiations, and Qatar is trying to extend the talks through the end of June. Because the U.S. stock market was closed for the June holiday and failed to respond in time, the crypto market came under pressure first. BTC briefly hit a high of $67,000 during the week before retreating to around $62,000, a weekly decline of 3.8%. ETH again lost the $2,000 level, dropping to the mid-$1,700s, a decline of 1.2%. Over the weekend, about $600 million in long positions were liquidated, while short liquidations were insufficient by $90 million, leaving leverage structures continuously imbalanced.

Wintermute noted that the narrative of Strategy’s forced sell-off has dissipated (net buying of 1,587 BTC between June 8 and June 14). However, marginal demand for both ETFs and Strategy has clearly weakened compared with earlier periods, and the channels for capital inflows have not yet been opened. The market is stabilizing more in a lightly positioned, low-leverage state rather than seeing new buy orders. In the short term, Friday’s PCE data and progress in the Qatar negotiations are the key catalysts. If a rebound occurs, it is more likely to be a trading opportunity and does not yet constitute a bottoming signal.