Bitcoin Weekly Outlook (Updated)

$BTC tested the Weekly MA 200 for the third consecutive week and closed just above it despite a -3% weekly candle.
Bullish Factors:
- Strong defense of the Weekly MA 200 for 3 straight weeks
- Bullish RSI divergence forming (similar to 2022 bottom)
- ISM at 54 (4-year high) + Russell 2000 at all-time highs
- Progress on US-Iran peace deal reducing macro risk
Bearish Factors:
- Still trading below the Weekly MA 20 and MA 50
- Bitcoin has dropped after the last 8 FOMC meetings
- Death Cross remains active on the weekly chart
- Inflation still sticky above 4%
- Panic if loose Weekly MA 200 support
Conclusion:
The third weekly test of the MA 200 shows buyers are actively defending this long-term support. However, BTC needs to reclaim the Weekly MA 20 (~$71,000) to invalidate the death cross and confirm a trend reversal.
Until then, the path of least resistance remains range-bound to lower, with the classic 4-year cycle bottom still pointing toward October 2026.