After AI-driven chip and material speculation, will glass substrates be the next HBM?

Today, U.S. stocks pre-market plunged by 2 points, and Bitcoin also started to decline, but for now I feel that the U.S. stock market is in a consolidation phase, after all, it has risen quite a bit before. I also mentioned before that June is a month with no positive catalysts, so a consolidation in June is beneficial for subsequent surges. July is earnings season, and based on the current progress of semiconductors, I believe these semiconductor companies' earnings reports will still be very "explosive."

So, the pullback in June is actually a good entry point; those who haven't yet entered the semiconductor space can take a look now. Which ones specifically? Look at the companies within NVIDIA's ecosystem that I discussed before. Currently, the "main player" is NVIDIA, and all companies related to NVIDIA should be watched. After all, when one person gains power, even their close associates benefit—this seems to apply in the financial world as well.

Last week, we mentioned that MLCCs (Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitors) and PCBs are starting to surge, all driven by AI. Now, AI's influence has extended into the materials sector. After all, whether it's GPUs, the chips inside, or even PCBs, they are ultimately made from materials. The current technological push requires breakthroughs in the materials industry.

For example, recently a technology called "glass substrates" has gained popularity again. This is the next-generation packaging technology that NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, and TSMC are all paying close attention to. It is a key bottleneck breakthrough point for the current AI algorithm explosion.

If you don't understand what glass substrates are or PCB boards, you can use an automatic translation tool. You don't need to understand in detail; just know that as AI chips become larger and larger, traditional materials can't withstand the heat generated by big chips—they deform and expand. So, new material solutions have emerged. These materials have a larger coefficient of expansion, can be made bigger, and allow for finer circuit lines.

The core technical challenge is: glass is fragile! Drilling holes and routing circuits on easily breakable glass, and laying out fine circuits on it, is extremely difficult. Otherwise, Intel wouldn't have spent over a decade developing it, and Samsung has invested billions of dollars in R&D.

Currently, the industry expects that large-scale implementation of this technology will happen after 2028-2030. The year 2026 is considered the "year zero."

Which companies are promoting this technology?

1. Intel, aiming for mass production starting in 2030.

2. Samsung, in progress;

3. TSMC, in progress; their core technology is usually not publicly disclosed.

What related industry chain opportunities are there?

1. Glass materials

Key players:

Corning (GLW), also a partner of NVIDIA, is the world's leading specialty glass manufacturer, the earliest developer of TGV glass substrates, and has mastered ultra-flat glass manufacturing technology. Their technical papers explicitly identify TGV as an important direction for next-generation 3D packaging.

AGC: Japan Asahi Glass

SCHOTT: Germany Schott These two are not discussed here, as we don't have access to them.

Domestic companies include Rainbow Glass (display glass substrates, production lines can be converted into semiconductor glass substrates), and East Hope Optoelectronics.

2. TVG (Through Glass Via) drilling equipment

Currently, the leader is Germany's LPKF, whose core advantage is laser-induced deep etching (LIDE), capable of achieving high-quality via holes without microcracks. But we also don't have direct access; the top players are in Germany. Domestic companies include Dier Laser and Huagong Laser.

3. Copper-filled vias and electroplating

This area might be the future dark horse; many believe this is the real barrier for glass substrates.

This segment also has many sub-industries, such as chemicals and materials, drilling equipment.

Internationally, JWMT and Samsung-invested companies. Extol, an important copper via supplier in Korea.

Domestically, companies like Vogt Optoelectronics (one of the few that masters the full process of TGV, precision copper plating, multilayer circuit fabrication, and has achieved industrialization).

4. Glass substrate manufacturing

International: Absolics, a SKC subsidiary, closest to mass production.

Followed by Samsung, Intel, etc.

If the explosive growth of AI server glass substrates occurs in the future, the following companies could be prioritized:

Currently, with AI, investment research in this area has become quite straightforward. But the challenge is turning this knowledge into feasible investment strategies. You need to analyze each company's ecosystem, stock price, financial reports, entry and exit points, timing, etc. I’ve already organized the first step for you. Moving forward, you can either put in the effort yourself or communicate with me at any time!