BTC Cycle Thermometer: The market is very close to the true “ice-point dip-buying stage”

Friends familiar with the stock market may know: the anchor point of stock prices is fundamentally linked to "discounting future cash flows"; in contrast, since BTC cannot generate cash flows, traditional valuation methods used in the stock market cannot be applied to BTC.
Therefore, as BTC is more sensitive to market liquidity and has its inherent four-year halving cycle, this leads to very large fluctuations in BTC during bull and bear cycles.
Thus, when evaluating the peaks and bottoms of BTC, we also need to use some measurement methods that break away from traditional valuation approaches.
(Background summary: The pressure of BTC being trapped between 116~119K still exists, but it seems that funds are quietly operating (Mr. Beig’s on-chain weekly report #43)
(Additional background: On-chain data detailed explanation: Talking about Glassnode’s top detection and bottom detection tools and their obvious flaws)

AVIV, full name Active Value Investor Value Ratio, comes from the Cointime Economics methodology developed through a collaboration between ARK and Glassnode.

📝AVIV = Active Value (Price * Active Supply) / Investor Value (Realized Cap – Thermocap)

📝Plain language version:

Select active chips, exclude the miner’s portion, and then calculate the "profit multiple."

In simple terms:

AVIV can be seen as an optimized version of MVRV, providing a more precise calculation of the market’s profit multiple.

The higher the profit multiple, the greater the profit level of market chips, which may indicate overheating issues,

and thus could lead to increased market selling pressure (too many people making money).

The AVIV Heatmap is a model I personally derived by processing AVIV,

using AVIV’s mean reversion characteristic, with the average and standard deviation as measurement bases,

and incorporating BTC’s decreasing annual volatility to monitor whether it is in an extreme range.

Through the AVIV Heatmap, we can clearly identify the current market stage (early bull, bull top, early bear, bear bottom); since BTC’s inception, it has basically been marked by the five-color changes of the indicator: "Blue → Green → Yellow → Orange → Red (and vice versa)."

As shown in the attached chart: BTC has not yet officially entered the blue zone from the "Blue Ice Age" in 2023, and based on the model’s data reverse inference, we are actually very close to triggering the blue indicator price.
If BTC again experiences a secondary dip below the previous low, it will essentially push BTC into the blue zone on the AVIV Heatmap, and at that point, combined with other on-chain bottom-fishing models (such as Cointime Price, Realized Price, etc.), it might be the golden opportunity for a major cycle bottom buy-in.

Although the bear market is long and painful, at least we are not far from the end.